KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Exactly 2 56.6%-4.0ptLeader of 5 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
72 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$11.6K
Liquidity
$20.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 15, 26, 5:00 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Federal Reserve
- Please note the following definition of a "rate hike": A single ‘hike’ is considered an increase in the upper bound by at least 1 basis point and up to and including 25 basis points.
- An increase of the upper bound of the target range 26-50 basis points hike is considered two hikes.
- An increase of the upper bound of the target range 51-75 basis points is considered three hikes.
Open markets
Fed
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change-3.0pt49%
- 25 bps increase+4.0pt49%
- 25 bps decrease-0.2pt1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $6.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.7M
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt94.1%
- Exactly 1 cut+1.2pt5%
- Exactly 3 cuts+0.5pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.6pt97.9%
- 1 (25 bps)-0.3pt2.1%
- 2 (50 bps)-0.1pt0%
+10 more outcomes
KALSHIFed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt48.6%
- Hike 25bps+4.0pt47.6%
- Hike >25bps1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.6M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in December?
- 25 bps increase-3.0pt65.7%
- No change+3.0pt31.4%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- 4.5%+11.2pt100%
- 4.6%+4.9pt100%
- 4.8%+7.9pt100%
+8 more outcomes
- What will the reporters say during ABC World News Tonight?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- Fed decision in Dec 2026?
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in October 2026? (Interest rates) (Rate hike cut) (Monetary policy) (FOMC) (Central bank)?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Bank of Japan Decision in October?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Number of rate hikes in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Exactly 2 at 57% as of September 17, 2026.
- When does Number of rate hikes in 2026? resolve?
- Number of rate hikes in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 3, 2027.
- How is Number of rate hikes in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the number of rate hikes by the Federal Open Market Committee during calendar year 2026 is the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.