Current implied probability
1 (25 bps) 42.1%+1.0ptLeader of 6 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
75 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.7K
Liquidity
$72K
High liquiditySpread
1.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Jun 23, 26, 7:43 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Rules
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
- Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026.
- This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
- For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
- This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
- Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
Open markets
Fed
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+3.0pt52.4%
- Fed maintains rate43.8%
- Hike >25bps+1.0pt1.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $40.5M
- 24h Vol
- $2.5M
POLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt53.5%
- No change-2.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps decrease0%
+2 more outcomes
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Hike 25bps+5.0pt48.6%
- Fed maintains rate-4.0pt44.9%
- Cut 25bps2.8%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $632.2K
KALSHINumber of rate cuts in 2026?
- Exactly 0 cuts-0.3pt91%
- Exactly 1 cut+0.9pt8%
- Exactly 2 cuts-0.9pt1%
+18 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)+0.3pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.1pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase30.1%
- 25 bps decrease-0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- Fed rate cut before 2027?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Dec 2026)
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will Kevin Warsh say during his September press conference?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How many Fed rate hikes in 2026??
- Polymarket prices 1 (25 bps) at 42% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? resolve?
- How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How many Fed rate hikes in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).