PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
4.70% 71%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$7.1K
Medium liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:05 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026.
- If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Open markets
FedPOLYMARKETFed Decision in September?
- 25 bps increase+3.0pt52.5%
- No change-3.0pt46.5%
- 50+ bps increase1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $103.9M
- 24h Vol
- $2.7M
KALSHIFed decision in Sep 2026?
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt52%
- Fed maintains rate-3.0pt45.1%
- Hike >25bps1%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $38.7M
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Fed rate decision in September 2026
- Fed maintains rate-2.0pt48.3%
- Hike 25bps+2.0pt45.4%
- Cut 25bps+1.0pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETHow many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
- 0 (0 bps)-0.1pt93%
- 1 (25 bps)+0.1pt5%
- 2 (50 bps)+0.3pt2%
+10 more outcomes
POLYMARKETFed Decision in October?
- No change66%
- 25 bps increase+2.0pt30.1%
- 25 bps decrease+0.1pt2.9%
+2 more outcomes
KALSHIFed rate cut before 2027?
- No88%
- Yes+1.2pt12%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $38.6K
- Next Fed rate hike?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?
- Fed Rate Decision (Oct 2026)
- Fed rate hike by which date?
- Will the Fed leave the rate unchanged in September 2026?
- Number of rate cuts in 2026?
- Fed funds rate after Sep 2026 meeting?
- Fed rate cut by which date?
- Fed decision in Oct 2026?
- How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
- How high will 10-year Treasury yield go in September?
Related Cryptos
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027??
- Polymarket prices 4.70% at 71% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? resolve?
- How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026.