How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.0 pt (24h)2mo
5.3%-4.0pt46%5.4%-1.0pt22%
5.5%-1.8pt12%+11 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$8.9K
POLYMARKETBonds & Treasuries
2,252 markets tracked all-time for Bonds & Treasuries, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
127
Total Volume
$13,036,014
24h Volume
$159,329
Liquidity + open interest
$6,266,301
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Live news: Risk assets under pressure as bond selloff and oil rally intensifyCoindesk5.3%-4.0pt46%5.4%-1.0pt22%5.5%-1.8pt12%POLYMARKET
30Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
3.0 pt (24h)1y
2% or above-1.0pt98%2.75% or above+3.0pt93%2.5% or above-9.0pt90%+22 more outcomes
Low quality (46)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$211.6K
24h Vol$36.7K
KALSHI
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
0.5 pt (24h)2mo
Below 4.70%+0.5pt72%Below 4.65%-6.5pt63%Below 4.60%+7.0pt56%+10 more outcomes
Medium quality (66)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$255.3K
24h Vol$27.4K
54 minutes agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?
9.0 pt (24h)1y
2% or above+9.0pt97%2.75% or above+1.0pt96%2.5% or above-7.0pt91%+22 more outcomes
Low quality (47)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$184.5K
24h Vol$31.7K
KALSHIHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
0.1 pt (24h)2mo
4.80%-0.1pt100%4.90%+10.0pt86%5.00%+16.5pt71%+11 more outcomes
Medium quality (60)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$171.1K
24h Vol$17.5K
54 minutes agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKETHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
11.0 pt (24h)2mo
Below 5.25%+11.0pt77%Below 5.20%+4.0pt60%Below 5.15%-2.0pt42%+7 more outcomes
Medium quality (62)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$197.1K
24h Vol$9.2K
54 minutes agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKETHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
4.0 pt (24h)2mo
Below 4.9%-10.5pt72%Below 4.8%-14.0pt53%Below 4.7%-4.0pt34%+15 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$438.2K
24h Vol$3.9K
POLYMARKETHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
2mo
5.40%75%5.50%+7.0pt65%5.60%+3.5pt51%+10 more outcomes
Medium quality (55)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$266.1K
24h Vol$2K
54 minutes agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How high will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
4.0 pt (24h)4d
5.02% or above-4.0pt88%5.03% or above-6.0pt84%5.04% or above72%+17 more outcomes
Low quality (36)Wide spreadLow open interest
Total Vol$5.9K
24h Vol$5.7K
KALSHI
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
19h
4.87% or above99%4.81% or above99%4.83% or above99%+12 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$22.9K
24h Vol$3.6K
KALSHIHow low will 2-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
6.0 pt (24h)2mo
Below 4.60%+6.0pt78%Below 4.50%-7.5pt49%Below 4.40%-15.0pt30%+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (56)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$26.3K
24h Vol$1.8K
POLYMARKET
30-year mortgage rate this week
3d
Above 7.22%92%Above 7.23%92%Above 7.24%72%+17 more outcomes
Medium quality (57)Moderate spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$16.8K
24h Vol$1.1K
KALSHI
How low will the 10Y US Treasury yield get by Oct 30, 2026?
4d
4.98% or below87%4.97% or below87%4.92% or below87%+17 more outcomes
Low quality (35)Wide spreadLow open interest
Total Vol$3.4K
24h Vol$1.9K
KALSHI
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026
2.1 pt (24h)3mo
3.0%++2.1pt46%2.6-2.8%-0.2pt19%2.8-3.0%+2.2pt17%+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (54)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$46.6K
24h Vol$748.2
POLYMARKET
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?
2mo
4.75% or above82%5.15% or above+33.0pt72%5.25% or above+31.0pt68%+5 more outcomes
Low quality (34)Wide spreadHigh open interest
Total Vol$58.1K
24h Vol$438.9
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHIHow high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
1.0 pt (24h)2mo
4.80%+19.5pt87%4.75%-1.0pt86%4.85%69%+8 more outcomes
Low quality (48)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$27.2K
24h Vol$960.8
POLYMARKETHow high will 5-year Treasury yield go in October?
4.3 pt (24h)6d
5.08%-8.5pt10%5.14%+4.3pt9%5.11%+1.5pt7%+6 more outcomes
Low quality (48)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$24K
24h Vol$808
POLYMARKETHow high will 2-year Treasury yield go in October?
6d
4.89%22%4.86%17%4.92%+9.5pt14%+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (55)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$19.1K
24h Vol$914.9
POLYMARKET
US defaults on debt by 2027?
0.7 pt (24h)2mo
Yes1%-0.7pt
No99%+0.7pt
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$19.9K
24h Vol$400.1
POLYMARKETHow low will 2-year Treasury yield get in October?
6d
Below 4.64%57%Below 4.60%32%Below 4.50%13%+6 more outcomes
Low quality (32)Wide spreadLow liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$17.4K
24h Vol$465.4
POLYMARKET
Moody's or S&P downgrades France by which date?
1mo
November 3044%October 31+0.1pt3%Low quality (34)Wide spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$19.9K
24h Vol$273.8
POLYMARKET
Peak US National Debt before 2027?
2mo
$41 trillion83%$42 trillion4%+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (51)Moderate spreadLow liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$19.6K
24h Vol$279
POLYMARKET
SOFR for October 23, 2026
24.0 pt (24h)12h
3.91% or Above+24.0pt95%Exactly 3.89%6%Exactly 3.87%2%+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (55)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$7.3K
24h Vol$541.7
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHI
US Treasury cash balance on October 23, 2026
19h
Above $875 billion98%Above $850 billion96%Above $900 billion96%+8 more outcomes
Low quality (26)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$89.3K
24h Vol$112.5
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHIHow low will 10-year Treasury yield get in October?
3.5 pt (24h)6d
Below 4.95%-3.5pt39%Below 4.90%32%Below 4.85%11%+6 more outcomes
Low quality (30)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$34.4K
24h Vol$203.7
POLYMARKETHow high will 10-year Treasury yield go in October?
2.3 pt (24h)6d
5.32%-1.6pt4%5.38%+0.6pt4%5.35%-2.3pt2%+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (58)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$35.3K
24h Vol$169.7
POLYMARKET
How high will the 5-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
4d
5.1% or above86%5.23% or above43%5.18% or above38%+27 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Spread unknownMedium open interest
Total Vol$31.6K
24h Vol$174.4
KALSHI
7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 26, 2026?
19h
4.81% or above99%4.71% or above99%4.73% or above99%+12 more outcomes
Low quality (31)Wide spreadLow open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$635.9
24h Vol$433.7
KALSHIHow low will 5-year Treasury yield get in October?
7.5 pt (24h)6d
Below 4.75%-7.5pt39%Below 4.70%33%Below 4.65%5%+6 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$20.7K
24h Vol$128.2
POLYMARKET
5Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
4d
4.86% or above99%4.76% or above98%4.88% or above90%+32 more outcomes
Low quality (35)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$11.7K
24h Vol$160.2
KALSHI
10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026
2mo
Above -20bps96%Above -10bps95%Above 0bps92%+8 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$8.8K
24h Vol$186.1
KALSHIHow low will 30-year Treasury yield get in October?
12.5 pt (24h)6d
Below 5.25%-12.5pt18%+8 more outcomes
Low quality (31)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$26.1K
24h Vol$87
POLYMARKET
Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026
6.0 pt (24h)2mo
Exactly 2.50%50%Exactly 2.75%+5.0pt45%Exactly 2.25%-6.0pt9%+5 more outcomes
Low quality (36)Wide spreadMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.3K
24h Vol$73.1
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHI
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?
Rating reduced
2mo
Yes8%
No92%
Low quality (46)Wide spreadHigh open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$79.5K
24h Vol—
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHI
10Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
4d
4.96% or above66%4.98% or above65%5.1% or above63%+32 more outcomes
Low quality (36)Wide spreadMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$22.8K
24h Vol$61.4
KALSHI
SOFR at end of Q4 2026
2mo
Above 3.00%99%Above 3.25%98%Above 3.50%98%+5 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$66K
24h Vol—
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHI
7Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
4d
4.72% or above95%4.66% or above94%4.68% or above94%+32 more outcomes
Low quality (49)Moderate spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$13.9K
24h Vol$68.5
KALSHI
Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?
2mo
Yes2%
No98%
Low quality (47)Moderate spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$45K
24h Vol—
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHIHow high will 30-year Treasury yield go in October?
0.4 pt (24h)6d
5.85%+0.4pt3%6.00%+0.7pt3%5.70%-2.3pt2%+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (50)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$23.2K
24h Vol$22.5
POLYMARKET
2Y US Treasury yield on Oct 30, 2026?
10.0 pt (24h)4d
4.58% or above+10.0pt93%4.76% or above90%4.56% or above89%+22 more outcomes
Low quality (40)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$13K
24h Vol$35
KALSHI
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?
Before 2027
0.7 pt (24h)2mo
Yes6%-0.7pt
No94%
Medium quality (51)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$13.4K
24h Vol$17
54 minutes agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Will the 30Y US Treasury yield hit 6% in October?
6% or higher
6d
Yes1%
No99%
Low quality (37)Spread unknownMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$19.4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
How high will the 2-year US Treasury yield get in Oct 2026?
4d
4.93% or above72%4.95% or above27%5.07% or above25%+27 more outcomes
Low quality (33)Spread unknownMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$17.6K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Which countries’ U.S. Treasury holdings will increase in 2026?
3mo
United Kingdom85%UAE82%France57%+9 more outcomes
Low quality (32)Spread unknownMedium open interest
Total Vol$15.2K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
2.0 pt (24h)2mo
Yes7.9%-2.0pt
No92.1%+2.0pt
Low quality (36)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$13.9K
24h Vol$2
POLYMARKET
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?
0.6 pt (24h)2mo
Yes6%-0.6pt
No94%+0.6pt
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$9.1K
24h Vol$17
POLYMARKET
Will the 10Y US Treasury yield hit 5.50% by Oct 31, 2026?
5.50% or higher
6d
Yes1%
No99%
Low quality (38)Spread unknownMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$12.3K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026
2mo
Above .7%14%Above 1.00%7%Above .8%4%+1 more outcomes
Low quality (40)Wide spreadMedium open interest
Total Vol$9.5K
24h Vol$5
KALSHI