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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Bonds & Treasuries

Bonds & Treasuries

49 related markets tracked across sources for Bonds & Treasuries.

Open Markets

31

Total Volume

$486,188

24h Volume

$276

Total Liquidity

$78,183

Open Markets

31

Total Volume

$486,188

24h Volume

$276

Total Liquidity

$78,183

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How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

0.3%6mo
4.0%
4.0%
+0.3%100%
3.9%
3.9%
-0.1%47%
3.8%
3.8%
-1.5%39%

+6 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$216.4K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Peak US National Debt before 2027?

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

0.1%6mo
$39 trillion
$39 trillion
-0.1%100%
$40 trillion
$40 trillion
-0.1%94%
$41 trillion
$41 trillion
+0.5%41%

+1 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$11.2K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by June 30?

18d
Yes
Yes
4%
No
No
96%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3K
24h Vol$1
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

1.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
-0.0%27%
No
No
+0.0%73%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$10.9K
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

0.5%6mo
Yes
Yes
+0.0%14%
No
No
86%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.7K
24h Vol$22.9
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

6.0%6mo
Yes
Yes
-6.0%29%
No
No
71%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$639.6
24h Vol$1.1
KalshiKALSHI
U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

4mo
Yes
Yes
12%
No
No
88%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$645.6
24h Vol$0.1
KalshiKALSHI
Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

6mo
Yes
Yes
14%
No
No
86%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$387.6
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
30Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

30Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

1.0%19d
Above 4.95%
Above 4.95%
+1.0%69%
Above 5.30%
Above 5.30%
-1.0%5%
Above 5.00%
Above 5.00%
51%

+5 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$247.2
24h Vol$4.2
KalshiKALSHI
How high will the 10Y US Treasury Yield climb by month-end?

How high will the 10Y US Treasury Yield climb by month-end?

20.0%19d
Above 4.55%
Above 4.55%
-20.0%79%
Above 4.50%
Above 4.50%
99%
Above 4.60%
Above 4.60%
75%

+1 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$137.1
24h Vol$0.1
KalshiKALSHI
SOFR at end of Q2 2026

SOFR at end of Q2 2026

20d
Above 3.75%
Above 3.75%
16%
Above 4.25%
Above 4.25%
2%
Above 5.00%
Above 5.00%
3%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$133.2
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?

10-year U.S. Treasury yield above 5% by June 30?

19d
Yes
Yes
50%
No
No
50%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$213
24h Vol$0
LimitlessLIMITLESS
10Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

10Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

3.0%19d
Above 4.50%
Above 4.50%
-3.0%71%
Above 4.45%
Above 4.45%
+12.0%98%
Above 4.55%
Above 4.55%
-15.0%46%

+2 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$96.8
24h Vol$1.4
KalshiKALSHI
5Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

5Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

19d
Above 4.20%
Above 4.20%
74%
Above 4.25%
Above 4.25%
67%
Above 4.30%
Above 4.30%
46%

+2 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$104.1
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
How high will the 30Y US Treasury Yield climb by month-end?

How high will the 30Y US Treasury Yield climb by month-end?

19d
Above 5.10%
Above 5.10%
58%
Above 5.15%
Above 5.15%
45%
Above 5.20%
Above 5.20%
16%

+1 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$98.7
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

6mo
Yes
Yes
15%
No
No
85%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$104
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
UST par yield curve (30Y) at end of Q2 2026

UST par yield curve (30Y) at end of Q2 2026

19d
Above 4.00%
Above 4.00%
97%
Above 4.10%
Above 4.10%
96%
Above 4.20%
Above 4.20%
96%

+13 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$67.7
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

41.0%8mo
Above 60.0%
Above 60.0%
+41.0%70%
Above 64.0%
Above 64.0%
-9.0%24%
Above 56.0%
Above 56.0%
0%

+5 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$70.2
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
2Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

2Y US Treasury Yield at month-end?

38.0%19d
Above 4.15%
Above 4.15%
-38.0%60%
Above 4.00%
Above 4.00%
+1.0%94%
Above 4.05%
Above 4.05%
87%

+3 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$61.5
24h Vol$0.2
KalshiKALSHI
UST par yield curve (5Y) at end of Q2 2026

UST par yield curve (5Y) at end of Q2 2026

3.0%19d
Above 3.50%
Above 3.50%
-3.0%96%
Above 3.20%
Above 3.20%
99%
Above 3.30%
Above 3.30%
99%

+13 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityTight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$76.6
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this quarter?

Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this quarter?

19d
4.501% to 4.6%
4.501% to 4.6%
25%
4% to 4.1%
4% to 4.1%
4%
4.101% to 4.2%
4.101% to 4.2%
5%

+4 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$40.9
24h Vol$0.2
KalshiKALSHI
Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

6mo
2.6-2.8%
2.6-2.8%
50%
2.2-2.4%
2.2-2.4%
50%
<2.0%
<2.0%
50%

+4 more outcomes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
PolymarketPOLYMARKET
10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

42.0%6mo
5.1% or above
5.1% or above
-42.0%7%
5% or above
5% or above
-25.0%23%
4.75% or above
4.75% or above
+12.0%39%

+1 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.6
24h Vol$13.2
KalshiKALSHI
UST par yield curve (3M) at end of Q2 2026

UST par yield curve (3M) at end of Q2 2026

19d
Above 4.00%
Above 4.00%
3%
Above 3.50%
Above 3.50%
90%
Above 3.75%
Above 3.75%
14%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$21.3
24h Vol$0.3
KalshiKALSHI
Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

6mo
Yes
Yes
9%
No
No
91%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$19.4
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

6mo
Exactly 1.50%
Exactly 1.50%
0%
Exactly 1.75%
Exactly 1.75%
0%
Exactly 2.00%
Exactly 2.00%
0%

+5 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$16.2
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 12, 2026?

Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 12, 2026?

3.0%1d
4.53% to 4.55%
4.53% to 4.55%
-3.0%14%
4.56% to 4.58%
4.56% to 4.58%
+10.0%20%
4.5% to 4.52%
4.5% to 4.52%
-2.0%17%

+12 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.2
24h Vol$2.4
KalshiKALSHI
Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 11, 2026?

Treasury 10-year yield on Jun 11, 2026?

15h
4.56% to 4.58%
4.56% to 4.58%
18%
4.34% or below
4.34% or below
0%
4.35% to 4.37%
4.35% to 4.37%
0%

+12 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.2
24h Vol$1.2
KalshiKALSHI
UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026?

UST par yield curve (10Y) at end of Q2 2026?

19d
Above 3.60%
Above 3.60%
1%
Above 3.70%
Above 3.70%
1%
Above 3.80%
Above 3.80%
0%

+12 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0.7
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this month?

Where will the 10 year US Treasury yield close this month?

19d
4.25% or above
4.25% or above
0%
4.3% or above
4.3% or above
0%
4.35% or above
4.35% or above
0%

+8 more outcomes

28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI
UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q2 2026

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q2 2026

19d
Above 3.00%
Above 3.00%
0%
Above 3.10%
Above 3.10%
0%
Above 3.20%
Above 3.20%
0%

+13 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
KalshiKALSHI