Bonds & Treasuries

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

7.0%5d

4.8% or above

99%

5% or above

99%

4.9% or above

98%

+6 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$25.4K

24h Vol$1.3K

KALSHI

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.0%5d

4.1% or above

99%

3.95% or above

99%

4% or above

99%

+16 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$12.7K

24h Vol$3.3K

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.0%5d

4.3% or above

+6.0%99%

4.35% or above

99%

4.5% or above

97%

+16 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$12.9K

24h Vol$3K

KALSHI

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

3.0%5d

4.2% or above

99%

4.25% or above

99%

4.3% or above

99%

+16 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$13.9K

24h Vol$608

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.31% or above

92%

4.33% or above

85%

4.35% or above

+4.0%82%

+12 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.6K

24h Vol$3.5K

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

25.0%1d

4.31% or above

99%

4.33% or above

95%

4.35% or above

93%

+12 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.4K

24h Vol$2.8K

KALSHI

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

5.01% or above

98%

5.07% or above

96%

5.09% or above

92%

+12 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.8K

24h Vol$2.3K

KALSHI

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

4.46% or above

+3.0%84%

4.48% or above

+3.0%80%

4.5% or above

69%

+12 more outcomes

36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.6K

24h Vol$1.6K

KALSHI

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

5mo

97.5%

Yes

2.5%

Community forecast66 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

23.0%1d

4.21% or above

99%

4.23% or above

99%

4.29% or above

+23.0%96%

+12 more outcomes

36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.4K

24h Vol$655.4

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

1.0%1d

4.56% or above

99%

4.58% or above

99%

4.6% or above

94%

+12 more outcomes

36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.3K

24h Vol$810.3

KALSHI

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

2040 and later

53.4%

2027

12.1%

2030-2039

10%

+6 more outcomes

Community forecast16 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

5mo

Yes

76.2%

23.8%

Community forecast13 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

5mo

89%

Yes

11%

49 • Low qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$71.6K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

0.5%5mo

4.0%

+0.3%100%

3.7%

+0.5%12%

3.5%

-0.5%11%

+6 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$221.7K

24h Vol$91

POLYMARKET

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

5mo

4.5%

+11.2%100%

4.6%

+4.9%100%

4.4%

-1.5%100%

+7 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$259.7K

24h Vol$8.4

POLYMARKET

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

Yes

50.7%

49.3%

Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

2mo

91%

Yes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$66K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

5mo

90%

Yes

10%

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$41.3K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

5.0%5mo

4.75% or above

+5.0%59%

5.15% or above

+8.0%33%

5% or above

+1.0%28%

+1 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$14K

24h Vol$56.7

KALSHI

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

2.0%5d

4% or above

99%

4.2% or above

99%

4.25% or above

99%

+16 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$10.7K

24h Vol$54.2

KALSHI

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

0.1%5mo

$39 trillion

-0.1%100%

$40 trillion

+1.4%97%

$41 trillion

+3.0%43%

+1 more outcomes

49 • Low qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$11.7K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

2mo

Above 3.30%

99%

Above 3.40%

98%

Above 3.50%

98%

+13 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$9.5K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

7mo

Above 60.0%

62%

Above 62.0%

50%

Above 58.0%

40%

+5 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$8.3K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

4.25% or above

84%

4.31% or above

72%

4.35% or above

55%

+12 more outcomes

36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidity

Total Vol$274

24h Vol$271

KALSHI

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

0.4%5mo

2.6-2.8%

-0.5%23%

2.8-3.0%

-0.4%23%

2.0-2.2%

-1.6%21%

+4 more outcomes

71 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$5.2K

24h Vol$1.8

POLYMARKET

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

95.1%

Yes

4.9%

Community forecast6 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

US defaults on debt by 2027?

0.3%5mo

96%

Yes

CoinRithm reference4%· ±0 pts

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$16.2K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

5mo

94%

Yes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$11.4K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

US Treasury 1-month yield on July 31?

3.69 to 3.71

30%

3.75 or more

30%

3.72 to 3.74

29%

+3 more outcomes

44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$463.2

24h Vol$0

FUTUUR

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

4.55 or more

51%

4.50 to 4.54

27%

4.46 to 4.49

18%

+3 more outcomes

44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$418.8

24h Vol$0

FUTUUR

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

5mo

>2026

78.2%

2026

15.7%

2025

4.6%

+2 more outcomes

Community forecast21 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

1.5%5mo

-0.0%80%

Yes

+0.0%20%

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$11.5K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

5mo

Above 3.25%

98%

Above 3.00%

81%

Above 3.75%

80%

+5 more outcomes

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4.9K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

7.0%5mo

Above -20bps

98%

Above -30bps

93%

Above 0bps

93%

+8 more outcomes

28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$2.6K

24h Vol$39.1

KALSHI

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

0.5%5mo

+0.0%89%

Yes

11%

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$3.8K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

5mo

91%

Yes

10%

40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$2.1K

24h Vol$0

POLYMARKET

Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

5mo

Above .7%

65%

Above .8%

36%

Above .9%

28%

+1 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$2.7K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

5mo

Yes

77.4%

22.6%

Community forecast6 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5.05% or above

90%

5.15% or above

58%

5.19% or above

49%

+12 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$173.3

24h Vol$140

KALSHI

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

5mo

90%

Yes

10%

Community forecast11 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

5mo

Yes

50.9%

49.1%

Community forecast8 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

5mo

Yes

66.1%

33.9%

Community forecast9 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

70%

Yes

30%

Community forecast6 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

5mo

Yes

56.4%

43.6%

Community forecast7 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

At least 4bps

79%

At least 8bps

67%

At least 10bps

57%

+7 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$1.8K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

5mo

Exactly 2.25%

47%

Exactly 2.50%

35%

Exactly 3.25%

+5 more outcomes

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$1.6K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

US defaults before 2027?

5mo

96%

Yes

CoinRithm reference4%· ±0 pts

24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market

Total Vol$1.2K

24h Vol$0

KALSHI

Related Crypto Assets

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

7Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield on Jul 27, 2026?

When will the US have a sovereign debt crisis?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 3.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

US credit rating downgrade in 2026?

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 4% before 2028?

U.S. federal deficit-to-GDP below 5% for FY2026?

Freddie Mac 30Y fixed-rate mortgage average below 5.75% in 2026?

10Y US Treasury yield at year-end?

5Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Peak US National Debt before 2027?

UST par yield curve (2Y) at end of Q3 2026

USDT reserve share in T-bills at end of 2026?

2Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Japan 10Y Bond Yield: End of 2026

Will the US unilaterally restructure outstanding Treasury debt (coupon, maturity, swap) by December 31, 2030?

US defaults on debt by 2027?

Will the US Treasury have any transactions on the blockchain?

US Treasury 1-month yield on July 31?

US Treasury 10-year yield on July 31?

When will the 30 year mortgage interest rates fall below 5%? (United States)

Another US debt downgrade before 2027?

SOFR at end of Q4 2026

10Y-2Y spread at the end of 2026

Major U.S. bank bailout before 2027?

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

Treasury spread 10Y-2Y by Dec 31, 2026

U.S. 30 Year TIPS yield exceeds 3% before 2027?

30Y US Treasury yield on Jul 31, 2026?

Will 30-year treasury yields go above 7% at any point before 2027?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.5%+ on 12/31/2026?

10 Year Treasury Yield at 4.0%+ on 12/31/2026?

30 year interest rates greater than 7.5% by EOY 2028

Will Brightline (Florida) default in 2026

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

Bank of Canada rate on December 31, 2026

US defaults before 2027?