PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability2.8-3.0% 23%-0.4%Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$1.8
Liquidity
$6.8K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
23.1% / 23.4%
Spread
1.3%
Tight spread7d Change
-0.4%
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
Jun 10, 26, 8:43 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
2.8-3.0%23%
Volume trend
$2Jul 1012d of dataJul 26
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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This market will resolve according to the 10-year Japanese government bond (JGB) yield on the last reported day of 2026, as reported by the Japanese Ministry of Finance.
- If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
- The resolution source for this market will be the Japanese Ministry of Finance’s “Interest Rate” data for Japanese Government Bonds found at (https://www.mof.go.jp/english/policy/jgbs/reference/interest_rate/index.htm).
- The resolution will be based on the value listed in the column labelled “10Y” in row corresponding to the latest reported date of 2026.
- The latest reported date will be confirmed once the Japanese Ministry of Finance publishes its first 10-year government bond yield for a 2027 date.
- The last 2026 date published before that point will be treated as the final reported date of 2026.