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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Fed
  3. Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?

2.0% (24h)FedGeopoliticsOne-OffCrime & Justice6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Tim Walz
Tim Walz 28%+2.0%
Leader of 25 outcomes
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$41.6

Liquidity

$3.2K

Medium liquidity
Bid / Ask

24.0% / 28.0%

Spread

16.7%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 6 minutes ago

Dec 2, 25, 1:00 AMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Tim Walz28%

Rules

If James Comey has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Charges filed in military courts are included.
  • The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion.
  • Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
  • Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
  • Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

If James Comey has been formally charged with a federal crime after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Charges filed in military courts are included.
  • The reinstatement of charges filed prior to Issuance does not count; only the filing of a new charging document after Issuance triggers the Payout Criterion.
  • Formal charges require the filing of a criminal complaint, information, or indictment with an appropriate court.
  • Arrests without charges, being named as a target of investigation, civil lawsuits, and administrative actions do not constitute charges.
  • Traffic violations that don't require court appearances and sealed charges that remain sealed through the deadline also don't count.