Crime & Justice
383 related markets tracked across sources for Crime & Justice.
Open Markets
288
Total Volume
$42,605,954
24h Volume
$82,533
Total Liquidity
$3,985,024
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
0.9%5mo
99%
42%
34%
+38 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.1M
24h Vol$8.8K
KALSHI
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
3.0%1mo
-2.0%63%
-1.0%55%
-3.0%34%
+2 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.3M
24h Vol$12.1K
POLYMARKET
Trump out as President before 2027?
1.0%5mo
+0.0%94%
-0.0%7%
CoinRithm reference7%· ±0 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$10.3M
24h Vol$4.3K
POLYMARKET
Who will be arrested in 2026?
0.3%5mo
36%
+5.0%26%
23%
+21 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJohn Brennan28%· ±8 pts
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$1.6K
KALSHI
Will Trump be impeached and removed from office?
2.0%2y
81%
+2.0%19%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$525.4K
24h Vol$3.5K
KALSHI
Will Netanyahu be arrested?
2.0%5mo
-2.0%7%
6%
+1.0%3%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$99.8K
24h Vol$15.3K
KALSHI
Andrew Tate released from custody by which date?
2.5%5mo
-2.5%19%
-0.6%3%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$107.3K
24h Vol$15.7K
POLYMARKET
Maduro Prison Time?
1.2%1y
-9.0%34%
+1.5%31%
-0.1%12%
+2 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$651.5K
24h Vol$1.4K
POLYMARKET
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
5mo
98%
2%
80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.5M
24h Vol$276.5
POLYMARKET
Who will be arrested before 2027?
0.3%
+18.0%43%
-1.0%28%
20%
+21 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceJohn Brennan28%· ±8 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$223.2K
24h Vol$448.7
POLYMARKET
Will a New York Times reporter be federally charged over Air Force One reporting?
12.0%5mo
+12.0%22%
+1.0%6%
61 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$38.5K
24h Vol$7.8K
KALSHI
"I beat Bush" Epstein Email Sender confirmed as ___ ?
0.5%5mo
-3.0%66%
-1.4%11%
+1.4%2%
+30 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$16.8K
24h Vol$1.2K
POLYMARKET
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
2.5%5mo
+0.0%71%
-0.0%30%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$691.4K
24h Vol$869
POLYMARKET
Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
5mo
51%
49%
68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$255K
24h Vol$1.8K
POLYMARKET
Kim Kardashian: Pass the Bar Exam before 2027?
2.0%5mo
93%
+2.0%7%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$71.6K
24h Vol$1.8K
KALSHI
Will Trump be impeached before his term ends?
0.5%2y
+0.0%67%
33%
CoinRithm reference62%· ±5 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$72.2K
24h Vol$478.7
POLYMARKET
Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by Sep 30?
1.0%2mo
+0.0%91%
-0.0%9%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$56.4K
24h Vol$559.1
POLYMARKET
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026?
1.5%5mo
+0.0%95%
-0.0%6%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$737.6K
24h Vol$357.3
POLYMARKET
José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero sentenced to prison?
1.0%5mo
-0.0%91%
+0.0%10%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$52K
24h Vol$293.7
POLYMARKET
Yoon out of custody before 2027?
0.1%5mo
89%
11%
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$143.1K
24h Vol$100
POLYMARKET
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell?
2y
95%
5%
Community forecast96 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
1.5%5mo
-0.0%74%
+0.0%26%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$23.7K
24h Vol$1.9K
POLYMARKETWill Pavel Durov (Telegram’s CEO) go to jail?
1y
92.9%
7.1%
Community forecast101 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS[ACX 2026] Will the composition of the US Supreme Court change in 2026?
5mo
79.1%
20.9%
Community forecast63 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Andrew Tate be found guilty of human (sex) trafficking in Romania?
4y
52.1%
47.9%
Community forecast3,478 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
When will Trump serve time?
3y
+0.1%90.4%
4.4%
-0.1%4%
+7 more outcomes
Community forecast2,591 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAUTOMATION: Less than 100 police officers are employed by the New York Police Department by the end of 2026
5mo
99%
1%
Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWhich year will legal action first be taken against Manifold Markets by any governmental entity ?
5mo
69.6%
21.8%
6.9%
+2 more outcomes
Community forecast23 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will anyone be jailed over Epstein disclosures?
0.4%5mo
89%
11%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$326.8K
24h Vol$209
POLYMARKETWill Donald Trump ever serve time in prison?
33y
84.3%
15.7%
Community forecast421 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill SBF receive a presidential pardon by end 2026?
5mo
97%
3%
Community forecast23 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026?
5mo
96%
5%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$155.4K
24h Vol$104.2
POLYMARKET"Conditional AI pause" commitment triggers antitrust enforcement by EOY 2028?
2y
-40.0%10%
-40.0%10%
-40.0%10%
Community forecast2 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Destiny sue anyone?
9mo
54.5%
45.5%
Community forecast9 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Gustavo Petro be charged in the US by which date?
5.0%5mo
-5.0%47%
-0.9%0%
-0.2%0%
+1 more outcomes
36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$90.3K
24h Vol$347.6
POLYMARKETWill the Portuguese ex-prime-minister José Sócrates serve time in prison due to Operação Marquês?
4y
81.3%
18.7%
Community forecast4 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be released from government custody?
2.4%5mo
93%
-2.4%7%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$65.1K
24h Vol$149.3
KALSHI
New York Times wins OpenAI lawsuit?
1.7%1y
56%
+1.7%44%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$59K
24h Vol$132.9
KALSHI
Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
3.0%5mo
59%
51%
+3.0%48%
+15 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$50.1K
24h Vol$100.5
KALSHIWill Karmelo Anthony be convicted of first-degree murder for the killing of Austin Metcalf?
5mo
98.9%
1.1%
Community forecast35 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Sam Bankman-Fried successfully appeal any of his convictions or sentence?
1mo
97.2%
2.8%
Community forecast27 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Andrew Tate spend more than 1 year in prison before 2027?
5mo
99%
1%
Community forecast44 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Jonathan Ross (shooter of Renee Nicole Good) be in custody by the end of the year?
5mo
90.6%
9.4%
Community forecast38 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Sam Altman be convicted of a felony by 2027?
5mo
93.6%
6.4%
Community forecast48 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Diddy still be alive in 2030?
3y
74.3%
25.7%
Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Ghislaine Maxwell still be alive on January 1, 2027?
5mo
94.3%
5.7%
Community forecast27 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Bill or Hillary Clinton spend any time in prison in 2026?
5mo
94.8%
5.2%
Community forecast16 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which SCOTUS justice will be the first to leave the bench?
5mo
+0.5%65%
-0.3%22.8%
-1.0%4.4%
+6 more outcomes
Community forecast49 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS