PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored reference
No 88.1%
No 88.1%Market quality
62 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$140.3
Liquidity
$13K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
—
Comments
12
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Jul 8, 26, 1:15 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Market depth · No
Loading selected book…
Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Dario Amodei arrested by December 31?
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PolymarketWill conclusive evidence emerge before 2030 that Viktor Orbán is a Russian asset?
Manifold MarketsWho will be arrested in 2026?
KalshiWhich cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026?
PolymarketWho will be arrested before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Viktor Orbán is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Temporary holding at a detention facility while awaiting a judge’s decision on whether to grant a detention warrant qualifies, so long as they are held by law enforcement in an official capacity during that time.
- A qualifying arrest/detention includes: * Being taken into physical custody by law enforcement authorities (including federal, state, local, military, or international law enforcement) * Voluntarily surrendering to law enforcement authorities in response to an arrest warrant * Being formally booked or processed following detention * Being handcuffed by a state authority and taken to a police station * Surrendering at a police station or courthouse with their attorney * Being placed under house arrest or electronic monitoring
- The following scenarios will NOT qualify as an arrest/detention * An arrest warrant being issued but not executed * Being questioned or interviewed without arrest * Being named in an indictment without arrest
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the arresting government and law enforcement; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.