NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
1.0 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 23%+1.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$15K
Liquidity
$113K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
225
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Sep 23, 25, 8:22 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
- Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify.
- Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
