NATO x Russia military clash by which date?
1.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineEurope2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 24%Leader of 6 outcomes
December 31 24%Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$18.2K
Liquidity
$238.2K
High liquidityOpen interest
$1.4M
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
273
7d Change
+1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 9 minutes ago
Sep 23, 25, 8:22 PM UTCJan 3, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
December 31, 2025Lost
June 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
March 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
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Market depth · December 31
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and the named outcome, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
- Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g. Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify.
- Shooting down UAVs which are not munitions (e.g. MQ-9, Orlan 10, Orion, Bayraktar TB2, etc.) will qualify.
