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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. NATO x Russia military clash by...?
NATO x Russia military clash by...?

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

0.1% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 19%-1.5%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$8.8K

Liquidity

$78.9K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

1.6% / 1.8%

Spread

12.5%

Wide spread
7d Change

-0.5%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Sep 23, 25, 8:22 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
December 31, 2025
December 31, 2025
0%
March 31
March 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 3119%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g.
  • Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
  • A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces.
  • Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
  • Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g.
  • Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify.