NATO x Russia military clash by...?
4.0% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineMusicEntertainmentEurope5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 30%+4.0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$58.1K
Liquidity
$94.3K
High liquidityBid / Ask
29.0% / 30.0%
Spread
3.5%
Moderate spread7d Change
+13.0%
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 23, 25, 8:22 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3130%
Large trades
$1.3k28.6%POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? — YesHakei.2d ago
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? — YesHakei.2d ago$5.3k80.0%POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? — NoSpecksalam22d ago
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? — NoSpecksalam22d ago$1.0k79.0%POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? — NoAlexCimmeria23d ago
POLYMARKETNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? — NoAlexCimmeria23d ago$3.5k80.0%POLYMARKETNotimebrotime23d ago
POLYMARKETNotimebrotime23d ago$1.2k79.0%POLYMARKETNorando1234523d ago
POLYMARKETNorando1234523d agoVolume trend
$58.1kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of a NATO country and Russia between September 23 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between NATO and Russian military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
- Interception of missiles or other one-way attack or loitering munitions (e.g.
- Shahed drones) which are targeting a 3rd party other than the listed countries or their respective forces will not alone qualify.