US x Russia military clash by...?
0.1% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineMusicEntertainmentMiddle East5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31, 3%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$21.6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
0.1% / 0.5%
Spread
0.4 pt
Tight spread7d Change
+0.1%
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
May 28, 25, 10:16 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 PM
Trends
0%
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 31,3%
Volume trend
$10Jul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
- Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S.
- MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.