US x Russia military clash by which date?
0.1 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / UkraineMiddle East3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 5%-0.1ptLeader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
60 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$29.5
Liquidity
$21.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
0.1 pt
Tight spreadComments
17
7d Change
+0.3 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
May 28, 25, 10:16 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between U.S. and Russian military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as airspace violations, firing of warning shots (such as the June, 2021 Black Sea Confrontations between Russian forces and HMS Defender), or cyberattacks will not qualify.
- Intentional physical collisions, including aerial interceptions and naval ramming without the direct use of weaponry, such as the 2023 Black Sea incident—where a Russian Su-27 damaged a U.S. MQ-9 Reaper drone's propeller, leading to its crash— will not qualify regardless of damage.
- Military contractors will qualify only if confirmed to be operating under the direct command or coordination of the respective state’s armed forces (e.g. the Battle of Khasham would not qualify).
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US x Russia military clash by which date??
- Polymarket prices December 31, at 5% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does US x Russia military clash by which date? resolve?
- US x Russia military clash by which date? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is US x Russia military clash by which date? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of the United States and Russia between May 28 and the named outcome, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.