Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
1.9 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastUS PoliticsElection2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 29, 2026, 9:29 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31 · —
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Stored reference
December 31 5%Leader of 3 outcomes
December 31 5%Market quality
58 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$6.6K
Liquidity
$42.1K
High liquidityOpen interest
$182.3K
Bid / Ask
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December 31Spread
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Comments
0
7d Change
+2.5 pts
Market data
Updated 55 minutes ago
LaggingJan 12, 26, 8:50 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
April 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
March 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 0.1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Market depth · December 31
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8.
- Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
- The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
