Will the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
0.1 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastUS PoliticsElection3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 2%+0.1ptLeader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
63 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$50.6
Liquidity
$70.8K
High liquiditySpread
0.7 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-0.8 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 8:50 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will America declare war on Iran before the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsWill the congress of the U.S.A officially declare war on another country before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsCivil War in Iran in 2026?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketIran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8.
- Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
- The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
