Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsMiddle EastUS PoliticsMusicEntertainmentElection5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 6%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$976.1
Liquidity
$86.6K
High liquidityBid / Ask
5.0% / 6.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Jan 12, 26, 8:50 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 316%
Volume trend
$976Jul 226d of dataJul 27
Related Markets
Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by which date?
$155.1December 31: 13%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Russia military clash by which date?
$0December 31,: 3%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What Will Happen During Trump's Second Term (2025-2029)?
$29.6Trump bans abortion nationwide: 3.2%
MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWho will win the next Ukrainian presidential elections
$15.5Mychajlo Fedorov: 42.6%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US lifts CAATSA sanctions on Turkey by which date?
$198.3October 31: 31%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to actual normal of 100 ships per day during Trump's presidency.
$106.5Yes: 43.2%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Related News
Polymarket odds swing: Eizenkot hits 51% as Israel campaign kicks offBlockchain.News
Polymarket: Vance leads 2028 at 19.85% as pricing trend softensBlockchain.News
White House pushes Senate Democrats to take 'historic' crypto Clarity Act ethics dealCoindesk
Senate nears bipartisan CLARITY Act deal after ethics breakthroughCrypto News
White House agrees to ethics provisions in market structure billCointelegraph
Polymarket odds: Eizenkot jumps to 46% to lead Israel PM raceBlockchain.NewsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
- To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8.
- Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
- The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.