Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 81.3%
Forecasters
26
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 8 hours ago
StaleJan 13, 26, 1:35 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Sudan civil war ceasefire by which date?
PolymarketWill there be a civil war in Hungary in 2026?
Manifold Markets[ACX 2026] Will there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a U.S. Civil War occur before January 1st, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a ceasefire in the Sudanese Civil War during 2026?
FutuurWill the US officially declare war on Iran by which date?
PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if a civil war occurs in Iran by December 31, 2026.
- Civil war is defined as sustained armed conflict between the Iranian government and organized opposition forces, or between competing factions for control of the state, resulting in significant casualties and territorial control disputes.
- The conflict must involve organized military or paramilitary units engaging in coordinated combat operations across multiple regions of Iran.
- Resolution will be determined by reports from major international news organizations (Reuters, AP, BBC, Al Jazeera) and human rights monitoring organizations (Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International).
- A single incident or localized uprising does not constitute civil war; the conflict must demonstrate characteristics of prolonged, multi-front warfare.
Open markets
GeopoliticsPOLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
+5 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $25.8M
- 24h Vol
- $574.8K
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-3.1pt48.3%
- October 31-3.0pt28.9%
- September 30-4.0pt12.3%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by which date?
- December 317%
- September 30+0.4pt2%
- July 310%
+7 more outcomes
- Total Vol
POLYMARKETUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
- September 30-4.0pt75%
- September 18-7.0pt69%
- September 11-13.0pt57%
+2 more outcomes
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Total Vol
- $41.1M
- 24h Vol
- $109.5K
POLYMARKETIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
- July 18+0.3pt100%
- July 20+0.1pt100%
- July 22+0.5pt100%
+20 more outcomes
- Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
- US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Russia x Ukraine peace talks by which date?
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
- Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
- Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
- Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
- Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
- US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Civil War in Iran in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 81% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Civil War in Iran in 2026? resolve?
- Civil War in Iran in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Civil War in Iran in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria