Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
0.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine8mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 30, 2026, 4:50 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
December 31, · —
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Stored reference
December 31, 71%Leader of 18 outcomes
December 31, 71%Market quality
≤49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$109.1K
Liquidity
$1.2M
High liquidityOpen interest
$1M
Bid / Ask
— / —
December 31,Spread
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Comments
281
7d Change
-5.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleMay 13, 26, 3:30 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
August 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
May 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Market depth · December 31,
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FutuurRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
- Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
