Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by which date?
4.5 pts (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine9mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31, 69%+0.5ptLeader of 18 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$33.4K
Liquidity
$803.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
207
7d Change
+5.0 pts
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
May 13, 26, 3:30 AM UTCJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
0%
0%
0%
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PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
- Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Polymarket — Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? · December 31 13%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? · December 31 11%
