Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
3.5% (24h)US PoliticsOne-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityDecember 31 36%-0.5%Leader of 5 outcomes
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$42.6K
Liquidity
$237.5K
High liquidityBid / Ask
18.0% / 19.0%
Spread
5.6%
Moderate spread7d Change
-2.0%
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
May 13, 26, 3:30 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
December 3136%
Compare venues· December 31
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volumeAlso available on Polymarket
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
0.5%5mo
25%
+0.5%13%
0%
+1 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$907K
24h Vol$5.3K
POLYMARKET
Also available on Manifold Markets
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by which date?
5mo
21.2%
13.5%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Community forecast11 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
- Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$2.0k90.6%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka3d ago
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by August 31, 2026? — NoLamantinka3d ago$1.1k60.0%POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321d ago
POLYMARKETRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? — Novladius321d ago$5.3k99.8%POLYMARKETNonedsta26d ago
POLYMARKETNonedsta26d agoVolume trend
$42.6kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
- A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
- Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
- Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.