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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

1.0% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 46%
Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$19.4K

Liquidity

$291.5K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

5.0% / 6.0%

Spread

20.0%

Wide spread
Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

May 13, 26, 3:35 AMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
May 31
May 31
0%

Selected outcome

December 3146%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
  • Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • A ceasefire agreement refers to any mutually-agreed suspension of direct military engagement between Russia and Ukraine, which is either officially announced by both countries or confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting to have been mutually agreed by both countries.
  • A broader peace deal, normalization agreement, political framework, truce, or humanitarian pause will qualify if it includes a mutually agreed suspension of direct military engagement, to be effective on a specified date.
  • Agreements that outline future negotiations or de-escalation measures without an explicit, dated commitment to stop fighting will not qualify.
  • Any form of informal understanding, backchannel communication, de-escalation without an announced agreement, or unilateral pause in hostilities will not be considered a ceasefire agreement.