Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 94.7%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 hours ago
StaleJul 13, 26, 11:06 AM UTCJan 1, 50, 12:04 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolves YES if strong evidence emerges that Russia assassinated Lindsey Graham before January 1st 2050.
- “Russia” includes the Russian state, its government, military, intelligence services, or agents or proxies acting under their direction or with their authorization. “Assassinated” means Lindsey Graham was intentionally killed for political, strategic, or state-related purposes.
- Strong evidence includes, but is not limited to:
- A formal attribution by the United States government or another highly credible government;
- A court judgment or criminal conviction establishing Russian responsibility;
- A clear consensus among multiple reputable, independent investigations based on corroborated documentary, forensic, intelligence, or eyewitness evidence;