PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
June 30, 2027 12%Leader of 3 outcomes
Market quality
76 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$17.1K
Liquidity
$180.6K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
542
Market data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 23, 25, 11:15 PMJul 1, 27, 3:59 AM
Trends
0%
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by the named outcome, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.
- Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
- Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
- The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
- Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
- If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map.