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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Russia / Ukraine
  3. Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

4.0% (24h)One-OffRussia / Ukraine6mo
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
December 31
December 31 12%-4.0%
Market quality

73 / 100

Medium quality
24h Volume

$25.8K

Liquidity

$122.8K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

11.0% / 12.0%

Spread

9.1%

Wide spread
7d Change

-4.0%

Market data

Updated 5 minutes ago

Sep 23, 25, 11:24 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

December 3112%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
  • Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
  • If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map.

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory in Crimea by June 30, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Polymarket
  • Territory will will be considered captured if any part of Crimea shaded blue on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date.
  • Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
  • The border around Crimea shaded in black on the ISW map will not qualify.
  • Once Ukraine captures territory in Crimea, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
  • If Ukraine comes into control of territory in Crimea as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of if it is shaded blue in the ISW map.