[Metaculus] Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / Ukraine2y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 95.5%
Forecasters
20
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 minutes ago
Nov 16, 23, 5:04 PM UTCFeb 25, 29, 3:00 PM UTC
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PolymarketRules
Will Ukraine lose non-Crimean territory by February 2029, compared to 2013?
- Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.
- (https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/18683/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria
- This question resolves based on a comparison of the territory controlled by Ukraine at the resolution date (2029-02-24, seven years after the Russian invasion) and its 2013 territory excluding the Autonomous Republic of Crimea and the city of Sevastopol.
- [image]It resolves as Yes if there is any part of the 2013 territory (represented in yellow and pink), excluding Crimea and Sevastopol (represented in striped area), that Ukraine does not de facto control in 2029.
- Fine print and additional background information can be found on Metaculus.