What are the current odds for Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war?

Manifold Markets prices No at 62.4% as of October 29, 2026.

Will Ukraine lose the Donbas region at the end of the Russo-Ukrainian war

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 62.4%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 1 hour ago

Lagging

Aug 1, 26, 4:23 PM UTCMay 15, 27, 3:59 AM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Before February 24th 2022, the administration of the Donbas region was split between the LPR, the DPR, and Ukraine.

Part of the announced goals of the Russian invasion is to gain control of the entire region.
This market resolves to yes if 1) a peace treaty is signed between Ukraine and Russia 2) the treaty requires Ukraine to relinquish control over the entire Donbas region.
Picture for reference: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donbas#/media/File:Map_of_Donbas_region.svg
(Identical market to: source market)