Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
5.0 pts (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East3mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 80.2%+5.0pt
Market quality
91 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$290.3K
Liquidity
$422K
High liquidityBid / Ask
19.0% / 20.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
0
7d Change
-7.0 pts
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 11, 26, 1:03 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
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PolymarketStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by March 31st 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of October? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by ...
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 20%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 20% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread