Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
6.0% (24h)GeopoliticsOne-OffMiddle East5mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 57%+0.1%
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$124.2K
Liquidity
$227.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
57.0% / 58.0%
Spread
1.8%
Tight spread7d Change
+7.0%
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
May 11, 26, 1:03 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes57%
Large trades
$1.2k45.0%POLYMARKETNoMetusalem13h ago
POLYMARKETNoMetusalem13h ago$2.0k56.0%POLYMARKETYesTopGod14h ago
POLYMARKETYesTopGod14h ago$1.0k51.0%POLYMARKETYesOdd-Deformation2d ago
POLYMARKETYesOdd-Deformation2d ago$1.0k51.0%POLYMARKETNoFearless-Misnomer3d ago
POLYMARKETNoFearless-Misnomer3d ago$12.1k47.2%POLYMARKETNoRememberAmalek7d ago
POLYMARKETNoRememberAmalek7d ago$2.0k59.0%POLYMARKETYesdedpepe11d ago
POLYMARKETYesdedpepe11d ago$1.5k44.0%POLYMARKETNopop12d ago
POLYMARKETNopop12d ago$3.3k43.0%POLYMARKETNoWashTrade12d ago
POLYMARKETNoWashTrade12d agoVolume trend
$124.2kJul 225d of dataJul 26
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships.
- Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.