PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityYes 18%+0.0%
Market quality
89 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$254.9K
Liquidity
$461.1K
High liquidityBid / Ask
17.0% / 18.0%
Spread
5.9%
Moderate spread7d Change
+6.0%
Market data
Updated 7 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 5:52 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes18%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume
Also available on Manifold Markets
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
5mo
15.4%
84.6%
Community forecast5 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will the US invade Iran before the end of 2026?
5mo
11.4%
88.6%
Community forecast216 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.8k16.0%Yesyuhyuhyuhy352352yesterday
$2.6k84.0%No20YrsOfBoredom3d ago
$3.1k84.0%Nozthunderfury4d ago
$1.9k14.0%Yes0x4fb9…836b4d ago
$12.9k86.0%NoContrarian - 745110d ago
Volume trend
$254.9kJul 212d of dataJul 13
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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.