PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 84.2%
No 84.2%Market quality
94 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$383K
Liquidity
$1.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
15.0% / 16.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 5:52 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
PolymarketUS-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
PolymarketNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 16%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point.
CoinRithm reference 16% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
