
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Will the US invade Iran's Kharg Island by the end of 2026?
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23?
US-Iran ceasefire continues through which date?
US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 19%. The venue spread is about 2 percentage points.
CoinRithm reference 19% · 2 venues · 2 pt venue spread
Free JSON for this market, no API key needed:
https://api.coinrithm.com/api/prediction-markets/events/polymarket/will-the-us-invade-iran-before-2027AI agents: call pm_data_event on the CoinRithm MCP server:
https://mcp.coinrithm.com/mcp+2 more outcomes
+2 more outcomes
+1 more outcomes