PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87.1%+3.0pt
Market quality
96 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$2.4M
Liquidity
$1.1M
High liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 13.0%
Spread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
1
7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 22 minutes ago
Nov 5, 25, 5:52 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.
- The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 13%. Quotes span about 1 percentage point between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 13% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027??
- Polymarket prices No at 87% as of August 28, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? resolve?
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless, Manifold Markets.
