KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
Before Jan 20, 2029 · —
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Stored price
Before Jan 20, 2029 Stored bid–ask21%–22%Collected: Last trade: 21% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Leader of 7 outcomes
Before Jan 20, 2029 Stored bid–ask21%–22%Collected: Last trade: 21% · Trade time unknownPrices are percentages of payout, before fees; these stored observations are not executable quotes.Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$119K
Open interest
$14.2M
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Jan 20, 2029Spread
—
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Dec 5, 25, 6:00 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Before SeptemberLost
Before close: 1% ·
Before OctoberLost
Before close: 1% ·
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Jan 20, 2029
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Book received (not venue quote time): —
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
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LimitlessIf the US confirms aliens exist, will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Jan 20, 2029
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 20, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2028
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Dec 1, 2026
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Dec 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Nov 1, 2026
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before September
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before October
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.