KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 20, 2029 24%Leader of 9 outcomes
Market quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$22.1K
Liquidity
$15.8M
High liquiditySpread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 31 minutes ago
Dec 5, 25, 6:00 AMJan 1, 27, 3:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- For purposes of this Contract, the Cabinet includes the heads of the 15 government agencies in the Cabinet as of Issuance, as well the Administrator of the EPA, the President's Chief of Staff, Director of National Intelligence, Director of OMB, Director of CIA, United States Trade Representative, Ambassador to the UN, Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers, Administrator of the SBA, and Director of OSTP.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Aug 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Sep 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Nov 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference December 31 4% · 2 venues · 46 pt venue spread
Open markets
Politics
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+16 more outcomes
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KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.3%
- Jon Ossoff17.3%
- Gavin Newsom12.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $194.5M
- 24h Vol
- $668.1K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
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- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.1pt14.4%
- Marco Rubio11.3%
+49 more outcomes
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+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%
- Jon Ossoff+1.1pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+0.3pt15%
+48 more outcomes
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
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- Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 20, 2029 at 24% as of August 27, 2026.
- When does Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? resolve?
- Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the President, any member of the Cabinet, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists before Jul 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Limitless, Polymarket.