Science
568 related markets tracked across sources for Science.
Open Markets
483
Total Volume
$113,964,418
24h Volume
$114,433
Total Liquidity
$18,225,838
Related Crypto Assets
Will the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
0.2%5mo
24%
17%
-0.2%7%
+6 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$33.3M
24h Vol$41.6K
KALSHI
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
5mo
6%
-0.1%3%
0%
+3 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$63.6M
24h Vol$25.1K
POLYMARKET
Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
1.1%5mo
66%
+1.1%34%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$213.6K
24h Vol$12.2K
KALSHI
Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
1.0%5mo
94%
-1.0%6%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$314.3K
24h Vol$2.6K
KALSHI
Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
5.0%5mo
99%
+1.0%54%
+1.0%30%
+14 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceUganda99%· ±1 pts
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$325.7K
24h Vol$2.7K
KALSHI
Which nuclear power companies will achieve criticality before Aug 2026?
1.0%5d
99%
96%
94%
+7 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$305.9K
24h Vol$1.5K
KALSHI
Total space launches in July
9.0%12d
+3.0%94%
-9.0%16%
-3.0%2%
+5 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$70.7K
24h Vol$12.9K
KALSHI
Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?
3y
74.3%
25.7%
Community forecast138 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
0.5%5mo
-1.0%55%
+0.5%42%
2%
+3 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.2M
24h Vol$529
POLYMARKET
Number of tornadoes in Jul 2026?
17.0%5d
+1.0%99%
99%
99%
+8 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$56.3K
24h Vol$1.3K
KALSHI
Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
0.3%5mo
96%
-0.3%4%
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.6M
24h Vol$209
KALSHI
US grants license for new nuclear reactor before 2027?
0.7%5mo
89%
-0.7%11%
CoinRithm reference11%· ±7 pts
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$697.6K
24h Vol$158
KALSHI
How many 5.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?
12.4%11h
+17.5%40%
+10.5%36%
+0.5%17%
+5 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$24.4K
24h Vol$4.5K
POLYMARKETDid COVID-19 come from a laboratory?
13y
75%
25%
Community forecast2,217 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSHantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?
1y
94%
6%
Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Dr. Beatriz Villarroel’s “aligned transients” be independently replicated?
5mo
90.3%
9.7%
Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSHow many 6.5 or above earthquakes July 20 - July 26?
11.0%11h
+11.0%90%
-8.0%11%
-4.0%1%
+4 more outcomes
79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$7.3K
24h Vol$1.6K
POLYMARKET
Is Earth flat?
5mo
98%
2%
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$51.7K
24h Vol$101.1
POLYMARKET
How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
1.0%4mo
+1.0%81%
-5.0%65%
-1.0%41%
+5 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$56.3K
24h Vol$581.1
KALSHIMajority of scientists believe there's life on K2-18 b before 2027?
5mo
93.8%
6.2%
Community forecast57 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
6.8%2mo
+2.5%23%
16%
-1.2%15%
+4 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$63.7K
24h Vol$1K
POLYMARKET
What will be the largest source of global primary energy consumption in 2030?
1.0%6y
-1.0%62%
13%
8%
+7 more outcomes
72 • Medium qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$131.8K
24h Vol$188.7
KALSHIAre the telepathy tapes actually documenting psychic abilities? (scientific consensus by 2026)
5mo
99%
1%
Community forecast28 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Eliezer Yudkowsky win his $150,000 - $1,000 bet about UFOs not having a worldview-shattering origin?
1y
96%
4%
Community forecast999 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What named storms will be hurricanes in the Central Pacific this year?
9.0%4mo
11%
9%
5%
+9 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$24.4K
24h Vol$441.3
KALSHIWill I live to be 200 years old?
175y
88.1%
11.9%
Community forecast75 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
3.0%5mo
-5.0%25%
13%
13%
+3 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$115.1K
24h Vol$118.7
KALSHI
Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
2.0%5mo
+37.5%100%
+1.5%63%
53%
+10 more outcomes
CoinRithm referenceUganda99%· ±1 pts
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$29.7K
24h Vol$1.5K
POLYMARKETWill the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?
3y
81.7%
18.3%
Community forecast73 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSGreatest Mathematician of all time
4y
-1.8%58.7%
+1.5%21.7%
+0.1%4.8%
+50 more outcomes
Community forecast191 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
5.0%5mo
69%
-5.0%31%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$16.1K
24h Vol$1.8K
KALSHIWill AI solve one of 129 major mathematical conjectures before year X?
23y
99.4%
99%
99%
+12 more outcomes
Community forecast38 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill there be a larger amount of mass intentionally sent “downhill” to Earth from space than “uphill” in 2050?
24y
61.9%
38.1%
Community forecast26 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAI program resolves Riemann Hypothesis before 2035
8y
58%
42%
Community forecast88 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill we get a cure for cancer before 2027?
7mo
99%
1%
Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Natural Disaster in 2026?
6.0%5mo
+0.1%78%
-0.1%22%
36 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$228K
24h Vol$795.2
POLYMARKETP != NP (will it be proven by April 2027)
8mo
95.4%
4.6%
Community forecast56 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill we be able to decode dolphin communication by 2030?
3y
66.5%
33.5%
Community forecast34 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill Rocket Lab successfully send an atmospheric probe to Venus by the end of 2026?
5mo
94.8%
5.2%
Community forecast23 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSNASA confirms aliens before 2027?
5mo
99%
1%
Community forecast141 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a polynomial-time algorithm for an NP-complete problem be published by 2030?
3y
91.2%
8.8%
Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which geographical areas will Tomorrow Bio cover at the end of 2026?
5mo
94.6%
94.5%
94.5%
+11 more outcomes
Community forecast3 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a human walk on the moon again before 2030?
3y
54.5%
45.5%
Community forecast249 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSConditional on no existential catastrophe, will there be a superintelligence by 2030?
3y
61.7%
38.3%
Community forecast242 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill I live to be at least 200 years old?
165y
88%
12%
Community forecast127 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSDoes Martingale betting have zero expected value even with unlimited funds? (note caveats)
73y
83.7%
16.3%
Community forecast48 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill a major earthquake (above 8.0 magnitude) strike a populated area in the Pacific Ring of Fire within five years?
2y
90.2%
9.8%
Community forecast22 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?
13y
61.6%
38.4%
Community forecast92 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS