Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72.3%
Forecasters
2,243
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Sep 1, 22, 3:51 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 8:00 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
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KalshiRules
This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l
Open markets
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- Alexander Zverev+17.0pt44%
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+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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- Bayern Munich+1.0pt15.1%
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+33 more outcomes
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- Seattle6.7%
+29 more outcomes
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- 24h Vol
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KALSHINew England vs Seattle
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- New England+2.0pt38.6%
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- 24h Vol
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- Game 4 Winner100%
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+37 more outcomes
- Total Vol
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KALSHIMVP Winner?
- Joe Burrow11%
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+42 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $14M
- 24h Vol
- $1.5M
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? resolve?
- Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2040.
- How is Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.