Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 72%
Forecasters
2,259
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Sep 1, 22, 3:51 AM UTCJan 1, 40, 8:00 AM UTC
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Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
When will Isaac King's "Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?" market resolve?
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This market resolves once we have a definitive answer to this question.
- (i.e. "I've looked at all notable evidence presented by both sides and have upwards of 98% confidence that a certain conclusion is correct, and it doesn't seem likely that any further relevant evidence will be forthcoming any time soon.")
- This will likely not occur until many years after Covid is no longer a subject of active political contention, motivations for various actors to distort or hide inconvenient evidence have died down, and a scientific consensus has emerged on the subject.
- For exactly when it will resolve, see @/IsaacKing/when-will-the-covid-lab-leak-market
- I will be conferring with the community extensively before resolving this market, to ensure I haven't missed anything and aren't being overconfident in one direction or another.
- As some additional assurance, see @/IsaacKing/will-my-resolution-of-the-covid19-l
