What are the current odds for Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)?

Manifold Markets prices No at 62.8% as of October 27, 2026.

When does Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll) resolve?

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll) is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2049.

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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

One-OffHealth & Medicine

Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibrated

Current community forecast

No 62.8%

Forecasters

Question type

binary

Methodology

Play-money forecasting platform

Source type

Forecast

Market data

Updated 3 hours ago

Stale

Mar 26, 23, 12:55 AM UTCDec 31, 49, 11:59 PM UTC

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Rules

Resolves by polling on Jan 1, 2050 whatever superintelligences I think are trustworthy, or polling Manifold or the rationalist community if there are none.

I will ask the question in the title and resolve to the majority opinion.

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Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory? (2050 Poll)

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Frequently asked questions

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Open markets

How many West Nile neuroinvasive disease cases will be reported among New York City residents in 2026?

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

New pandemic in 2026?

Will the ACA premium tax credits be extended?