PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 97%-0.1pt
Market quality
79 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$4.1K
Liquidity
$46.8K
High liquidityBid / Ask
2.8% / 3.1%
Spread
0.3 pt
Tight spreadComments
9
7d Change
-0.9 pts
Market data
Updated 10 minutes ago
May 15, 26, 8:21 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which states will report local cases in the May 2026 Ebola Bundibugyo outbreak
Manifold MarketsWhich countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
KalshiWhich countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
PolymarketWill there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?
Manifold Markets2026 Ebola epidemic deaths?
Manifold MarketsHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
- The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications.
- A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's liquidity-weighted reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 3%. Quotes span about 2 percentage points between the widest venues.
CoinRithm reference 3% · 2 venues · 2 pt venue spread
Open markets
Health & MedicinePOLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.1M
- 24h Vol
- $35.4K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.7pt3%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 4000+1.0pt97%
- Above 600059%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $3.2K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $1.6K
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+1.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Total Vol
- $97.8K
KALSHIWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- before April 202783%
- before 202780%
- before December71%
+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $20.6K
- 24h Vol
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Anitocabtagene Autoleucel (anito-cel) by Gilead Sciences (in 2026)
- Heidi Overton confirmed as FDA Commissioner by which date?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Ebola pandemic in 2026??
- Polymarket prices No at 97% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Ebola pandemic in 2026? resolve?
- Ebola pandemic in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Ebola pandemic in 2026? settled?
- Polymarket settles this market as follows: This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Where else is Ebola pandemic in 2026? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Kalshi, Manifold Markets.