Health & Medicine | Prediction Markets

Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?

0.1%5mo

97%

Yes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$17M

24h Vol$2.5K

POLYMARKET

New pandemic in 2026?

5mo

94%

Yes

CoinRithm reference5%· ±2 pts

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$921.4K

24h Vol$7.1K

POLYMARKET

Measles cases in 2026?

4.0%5mo

Above 1500

99%

Above 1750

99%

Above 2000

99%

+5 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$816.4K

24h Vol$2.9K

KALSHI

Ebola pandemic in 2026?

0.1%5mo

96%

Yes

CoinRithm reference4%· ±1 pts

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$669.3K

24h Vol$1.9K

POLYMARKET

Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?

5.0%5mo

Uganda

99%

South Sudan

+1.0%54%

Burundi

+1.0%30%

+14 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceUganda99%· ±1 pts

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$325.7K

24h Vol$2.7K

KALSHI

Will over 100,000 people be conceived with the help of advanced embryo selection techniques by 2030?

74.3%

Yes

25.7%

Community forecast138 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?

2.0%1mo

Before 2027

-2.0%68%

Before November

55%

Before September

-2.0%24%

+1 more outcomes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$70.8K

24h Vol$1.5K

KALSHI

Will WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?

0.3%5mo

96%

Yes

-0.3%4%

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.6M

24h Vol$209

KALSHI

Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?

1.0%5mo

↑500

+0.1%100%

↑1k

+0.1%100%

↑2k

+0.2%100%

+7 more outcomes

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$7.8M

24h Vol$344.8

POLYMARKET

Hims & Hers subscribers in Q2

37.0%1mo

Above 2.62 million

98%

Above 2.64 million

97%

Above 2.66 million

96%

+12 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$66.3K

24h Vol$333

KALSHI

Did COVID-19 come from a laboratory?

13y

75%

Yes

25%

Community forecast2,217 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hantavirus Pandemic 2026-2027?

94%

Yes

Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

2.0%5mo

58%

Yes

+2.0%42%

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$354.6K

24h Vol$229.3

KALSHI

Will I live to be 200 years old?

175y

88.1%

Yes

11.9%

Community forecast75 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

How many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?

3.0%5mo

Above 0

-5.0%25%

Above 1

13%

Above 2

13%

+3 more outcomes

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$115.1K

24h Vol$118.7

KALSHI

Will the FDA approve retatrutide?

1.0%11mo

Before Jul 1, 2028

95%

Before Jan 1, 2028

+1.0%86%

Before Jan 1, 2029

85%

+2 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$25.3K

24h Vol$318

KALSHI

Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?

2.5%5mo

Uganda

+37.5%100%

South Sudan

+1.5%63%

Ethiopia

53%

+10 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceUganda99%· ±1 pts

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$29.7K

24h Vol$1.5K

POLYMARKET

Will the WHO declare an H5N1 pandemic before 2030?

81.7%

Yes

18.3%

Community forecast73 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?

3.0%5mo

Above 4k

96%

Above 6k

94%

Above 8k

94%

+6 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$16.1K

24h Vol$478.6

KALSHI

Lantern Bioworks' Lumina ProBiotic: Does it work and does it have side effects? [Scott Alexander's possibilities]

Doesn’t work at all and never will

+11.7%62%

Good on balance, comparable to other beneficial dental treatments

30%

Causes (at least) minor side effects for some people, same scale as Tylenol

-8.9%29.5%

+4 more outcomes

Community forecast113 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?

5mo

86.5%

Yes

13.5%

Community forecast15 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

If RFK Jr is confirmed HHS Secretary, Marin kindergarten vaccination rate in 2026-2027

96.5%-97.49%

+2.5%25.7%

Below 94%

-2.5%22.8%

95.5%-96.49%

-2.4%22.2%

+2 more outcomes

Community forecast7 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who will Trump announce as next FDA commissioner?

0.1%5mo

No announcement by December 31

-6.7%17%

Kyle Diamantas

14%

Sara Brenner

-0.5%8%

+30 more outcomes

CoinRithm referenceKyle Diamantas14%· ±6 pts

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$18.3K

24h Vol$124

POLYMARKET

Will we get a cure for cancer before 2027?

7mo

99%

Yes

Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)

35y

2061 or later

29.2%

2041-2060

19%

2031-2040

12.6%

+12 more outcomes

Community forecast13 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the NIH indirect cost cap stick?

5mo

88.6%

Yes

11.4%

Community forecast6 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Measles cases in U.S. by July 31?

1.0%5d

2200

+0.2%100%

2300

+5.8%100%

2350

+1.0%80%

+1 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$55.4K

24h Vol$444.8

POLYMARKET

Will I live to be at least 200 years old?

165y

88%

Yes

12%

Community forecast127 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

165y

89%

Yes

11%

Community forecast61 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

In twenty years, will the best evidence available suggest that sperm counts have been substantially declining across most of the world?

16y

60%

Yes

40%

Community forecast188 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the COVID lab leak theory be proven by 2027?

5mo

98.8%

Yes

1.2%

Community forecast44 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Neuralink successfully enable a paralyzed person to walk again using its technology by 2030?

52.7%

Yes

47.3%

Community forecast99 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 150 years old?

119y

89.8%

Yes

10.2%

Community forecast44 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

2026 Ebola epidemic deaths?

5mo

2000-3999

+3.9%52.9%

4000-5999

+5.0%31%

1000-1999

-3.5%10%

+6 more outcomes

Community forecast33 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Mass distribution of azithromycin to reduce child mortality by 1st January 2027?

5mo

80.2%

Yes

19.8%

Community forecast19 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Pandemic in 2026?

5mo

95%

Yes

CoinRithm reference5%· ±2 pts

56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$672.8K

24h Vol$10.5

KALSHI

New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?

0.2%5mo

95%

Yes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$17.9K

24h Vol$184

POLYMARKET

Will GiveWell fund probiotic supplementation for preterm newborns by 1st January 2027?

5mo

72.2%

Yes

27.8%

Community forecast17 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will GiveWell fund Eave tubes to control malaria by 1st January 2027?

5mo

78.2%

Yes

21.8%

Community forecast14 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

[ACX 2026] Will the FDA approve a psilocybin treatment during 2026?

5mo

69.4%

Yes

30.6%

Community forecast26 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will I live to be 125 years old?

94y

86.4%

Yes

13.6%

Community forecast42 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the origin of the MV Hondius hantavirus outbreak be revealed to be from rats on the ship itself?

5mo

90.9%

Yes

9.1%

Community forecast90 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will the death of Elon Musk be ketamine related?

18y

89.4%

Yes

10.6%

Community forecast24 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will anyone solve my partner's depression before 2027? [M$1,000,000 bounty]

5mo

77.4%

Yes

22.6%

Community forecast46 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Ice Cream turn out to actually be "healthy" based on consensus view at EOY 2026?

5mo

93%

Yes

Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Lantern Bioworks Lumina treatment be FDA Approved for preventing tooth decay by the end of 2026?

5mo

97%

Yes

Community forecast36 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Hentavirus pandemic in 2026?

5mo

96.6%

Yes

3.4%

Community forecast20 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will there be more than 100 cases of ebola in the US in 2026?

5mo

95.8%

Yes

4.2%

Community forecast36 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS