PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityNo 88.1%+0.0pt
Market quality
49 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$5.6
Liquidity
$921.4
Low liquidityBid / Ask
10.0% / 13.0%
Spread
3.0 pt
Moderate spread7d Change
-6.0 pts
Market data
Updated 13 minutes ago
Dec 1, 25, 9:52 PMDec 31, 26, 12:00 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes12%
Volume trend
$6Jul 223d of dataJul 27
Related Markets
New pandemic in 2026?
$25.3KYes: 9%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
$2K↑500: 100%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026?
$57.8Yes: 4%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
When "Will Masking Return"? (widespread mask mandates in the USA)
$1.1KSeptember 2023: 1%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the NIH indirect cost cap stick?
$1KYes: 11.4%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill GiveWell fund Sayana® Press by 1st January 2027?
$1KYes: 13.5%MANIFOLD MARKETS
MANIFOLD MARKETSActive in these topics
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET.
- Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
- The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.
- The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.