Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
2.0 pts (24h)Health & MedicineOne-Off3mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 74%
Market quality
65 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$292.8
Liquidity
$89.7K
High liquidityBid / Ask
26.0% / 31.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Jul 17, 25, 2:00 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the FDA approves any psychedelic substance for medical use for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Psychedelic drugs include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
- Important information: For purposes of this Contract:
- The listed substances are illustrative, not exhaustive.
- Approval of any other substance commonly recognized in scientific or FDA documentation as a psychedelic, hallucinogen, or entactogen (for example, psilocin, 5-MeO-DMT, methylone, or 2C-, DOx-, or NBOMe-family compounds) may also satisfy the Payout Criterion.
- "Approval for medical use" means an FDA approval letter for an NDA or BLA authorizing marketing of a drug or biologic for human medical use in the United States, where a listed (or otherwise qualifying) psychedelic substance is an active pharmaceutical ingredient of the approved product.
Open markets
Health & Medicine
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year??
- Kalshi prices No at 74% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? resolve?
- Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the FDA approves any psychedelic substance for medical use for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.