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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Health & Medicine
  3. Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?
Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use this year?

5.0% (24h)Health & MedicineOne-Off6mo
KalshiKalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% fee
Current implied probability
Yes
Yes 32%-5.0%
Market quality

44 / 100

Low quality
24h Volume

$13.1

Liquidity

$822.6

Low liquidity
Bid / Ask

30.0% / 31.0%

Spread

3.3%

Moderate spread
Market data

Updated 4 minutes ago

Jul 17, 25, 2:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance

Selected outcome

Yes32%

Rules

If the FDA approves any psychedelic substance for medical use for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Psychedelic drugs include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
  • Important information: For purposes of this Contract:
  • The listed substances are illustrative, not exhaustive.
  • Approval of any other substance commonly recognized in scientific or FDA documentation as a psychedelic, hallucinogen, or entactogen (for example, psilocin, 5-MeO-DMT, methylone, or 2C-, DOx-, or NBOMe-family compounds) may also satisfy the Payout Criterion.
  • "Approval for medical use" means an FDA approval letter for an NDA or BLA authorizing marketing of a drug or biologic for human medical use in the United States, where a listed (or otherwise qualifying) psychedelic substance is an active pharmaceutical ingredient of the approved product.

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Rules

If the FDA approves any psychedelic substance for medical use for marketing before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Psychedelic drugs include: LSD, Psilocybin, DMT, Mescaline, MDMA, MDA, PCP, DXM, Ibogaine, Salvia divinorum, 2C family, and Ayahuasca.
  • Important information: For purposes of this Contract:
  • The listed substances are illustrative, not exhaustive.
  • Approval of any other substance commonly recognized in scientific or FDA documentation as a psychedelic, hallucinogen, or entactogen (for example, psilocin, 5-MeO-DMT, methylone, or 2C-, DOx-, or NBOMe-family compounds) may also satisfy the Payout Criterion.
  • "Approval for medical use" means an FDA approval letter for an NDA or BLA authorizing marketing of a drug or biologic for human medical use in the United States, where a listed (or otherwise qualifying) psychedelic substance is an active pharmaceutical ingredient of the approved product.