KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Before Jan 1, 2032 59%Leader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$95
Liquidity
$6.7K
Medium liquiditySpread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadMarket data
Updated 7 minutes ago
May 14, 26, 2:00 AM UTCJan 1, 28, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Food and Drug Administration
- An approval is defined as:
- For new drugs: FDA issuance of an approval letter for a New Drug Application (NDA) or Biologics License Application (BLA) For already-marketed drugs seeking new indications: FDA approval of a supplemental NDA (sNDA) or supplemental BLA (sBLA) for the specific indication referenced For generic drugs: FDA approval of an Abbreviated New Drug Application (ANDA) For biosimilars: FDA approval of a 351(k) application
- The following constitute approvals that trigger the Payout Criterion:
- Standard approval (traditional approval based on clinical benefit) Accelerated approval (based on surrogate endpoints) Approval with Risk Evaluation and Mitigation Strategy (REMS) Approval with restricted distribution or indication limitations, except compassionate use/expanded access programs
- The following do NOT constitute approvals:
Open markets
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No+0.4pt97%
- Yes-0.4pt3%
- Total Vol
- $18.2M
- 24h Vol
- $60.9K
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No98%
- Yes2%
- Total Vol
- $1.9M
- 24h Vol
- $15.8K
KALSHIPandemic in 2026?
- No96%
- Yes-1.0pt4%
- Total Vol
- $727.5K
- 24h Vol
- $15.6K
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 600061%
+2 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4K
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No-1.0pt93.1%
- Yes+1.0pt6.9%
- Total Vol
- $1.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2K
KALSHICyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- Above 18k99%
- Above 6k99%
- Above 10k99%
+12 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $37.7K
- 24h Vol
- $1.5K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD??
- Kalshi prices Before Jan 1, 2032 at 59% as of September 11, 2026.
- When does Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD? resolve?
- Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2028.
- How is Will the FDA approve MDMA for PTSD? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the FDA approves midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD for marketing the named outcome, then the market resolves to Yes.