PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 87%
No 87%Market quality
66 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$3.9K
Liquidity
$2K
Low liquidityBid / Ask
12.0% / 14.0%
Spread
2.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 12 minutes ago
Oct 6, 26, 8:21 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Another pneumonic plague case in Russia by which date?
PolymarketWill a pneumonic plague case be reported in the U.S. this year?
KalshiPlague pandemic in 2026?
PolymarketConfirmed Irkutsk plague cases in Oct 2026?
KalshiPlague declared public health emergency by which date?
PolymarketWill the Irkutsk Anti-Plague institute incident turn into an outbreak?
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a human case of pneumonic plague outside the Russian Federation is confirmed and established as epidemiologically linked to the outbreak associated with the Irkutsk Anti-Plague Research Institute by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- A "confirmed case" is a case explicitly identified by a qualifying source as laboratory-confirmed Yersinia pestis infection with pneumonic (pulmonary) involvement, or explicitly announced as a confirmed pneumonic plague case.
- A bubonic or septicemic case that progresses to pneumonic plague qualifies.
- An epidemiological link means a qualifying source states that the case acquired its infection from a person, animal, sample or material connected to the Irkutsk outbreak, or that the case travelled from Irkutsk Oblast within the incubation period and is being investigated as part of that outbreak.
- Resolution is based on the date a qualifying source publishes the confirmation and the link, not the date of exposure, symptom onset or laboratory result.