Will a war resulting in over one million fatalities within one year occur before 2030?
GeopoliticsOne-OffRussia / UkraineChinaLatin AmericaMiddle EastHealth & Medicine3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 68.5%
Forecasters
12
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 7 hours ago
StaleJun 1, 23, 6:33 AM UTCJan 1, 30, 8:00 AM UTC
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Manifold MarketsRules
As of 2023, global conflict hotspots include areas such as Taiwan due to China's aggression, Ukraine due to escalating conflict, Russia due to growing civil unrest, and regions involving North Korea, Israel, and Iran due to their respective nuclear programs.
- Additionally, migration surges to the U.S. from Central America and Mexico due to increased violence and acute weather events have heightened tensions.
- The potential for these conflicts to escalate into war with substantial casualties is a pressing concern for global security.
- Before January 1st, 2030, will a war occur anywhere in the world that results in the death of over one million people?
- Resolution Criteria:
- This question will resolve positively if, before January 1st, 2030, credible sources confirm that a war has occurred in any region of the world resulting in the death of over one million people within one year.
