China

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

0.3%5mo

96%

Yes

CoinRithm reference4%· ±0 pts

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$39M

24h Vol$27.8K

POLYMARKET

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

0.1%5mo

95%

Yes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$11.5M

24h Vol$8.7K

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

9.1%4d

Alibaba

-9.1%76%

Moonshot

+12.2%23%

DeepSeek

-0.2%1%

+22 more outcomes

89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$700K

24h Vol$39.7K

POLYMARKET

Highest temperature in Beijing on July 26?

31.9%4h

34°C

+64.5%93%

35°C

-2.5%3%

26°C or below

+8 more outcomes

77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$55.4K

24h Vol$46.7K

POLYMARKET

Valorant: Nova Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

2.0%9h

1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

-0.5%64%

2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

-1.0%61%

3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

+7.5%61%

+18 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$26.3K

24h Vol$25.8K

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

89%

Yes

12%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$2.2M

24h Vol$4.6K

POLYMARKET

Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC

0.5%4h

Chengdu Rongcheng

-0.5%49%

Beijing

+2.0%28%

Draw (Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing

-0.5%24%

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$14.4K

24h Vol$13.4K

POLYMARKET

Valorant: FunPlus Phoenix vs Wolves Esports (BO3) - VCT China Stage 2 Seed Deciders

2.5%7h

1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

63%

2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5

+2.5%63%

3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5

+8.5%58%

+14 more outcomes

100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$9.8K

24h Vol$9.8K

POLYMARKET

Will the US issue a Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan?

3.2%5mo

Before Jan 1, 2030

-5.0%43%

Before Jan 1, 2029

37%

Before Jan 1, 2028

21%

+2 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$461.5K

24h Vol$2K

KALSHI

China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?

5mo

93%

Yes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$3.1M

24h Vol$3.8K

POLYMARKET

Best Chinese AI Company this week

2.0%1d

Alibaba

95%

Moonshot

+2.0%6%

DeepSeek

+6 more outcomes

73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$65K

24h Vol$8.5K

KALSHI

Who will Xi Jinping purge in 2026?

3.0%5mo

Dong Jun

10%

Zhang Shengmin

Zhao Leji

+6 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$194.1K

24h Vol$1.3K

POLYMARKET

China x Japan military clash before 2027?

1.0%5mo

-0.0%93%

Yes

+0.0%8%

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.1M

24h Vol$2.6K

POLYMARKET

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

2mo

98%

Yes

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.4M

24h Vol$995.3

POLYMARKET

Worlds 2026 Winning Region

0.1%5mo

LCK (South Korea)

66%

LPL (China)

27%

LEC (Europe / EMEA)

+1.0%7%

+4 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$361.4K

24h Vol$1.7K

POLYMARKET

Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - More Markets

0.3%4h

O/U 0.5

+2.0%96%

O/U 1.5

+0.5%84%

Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 0.5

84%

+30 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$4.1K

24h Vol$3.5K

POLYMARKET

US x China tariff agreement by December 31?

0.3%5mo

Yes

89%

11%

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$166.4K

24h Vol$1.2K

POLYMARKET

Chengdu Rongcheng vs Beijing Guoan

2.0%14d

Chengdu Rongcheng

-2.0%49%

Beijing Guoan

29%

Tie

+1.0%25%

88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$16.4K

24h Vol$16.3K

KALSHI

Best Chinese AI Company this month

Alibaba

84%

Moonshot

-4.0%13%

Tencent

+6 more outcomes

65 • Medium qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity

Total Vol$26K

24h Vol$6K

KALSHI

Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - Exact Score

1.5%4h

Any Other Score

18%

FC 2 - 1

+1.5%10%

FC 1 - 1

+14 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1.1K

24h Vol$1.1K

POLYMARKET

Bilibili Gaming vs. Nova Esports

1.0%2d

Nova Esports

-1.0%54%

Bilibili Gaming

-1.0%47%

CoinRithm referenceNova Esports54%· ±3 pts

88 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$11.6K

24h Vol$11.4K

KALSHI

Highest temperature in Beijing on July 27?

0.9%1d

34°C

+6.5%40%

33°C

+1.0%27%

35°C

-1.5%22%

+8 more outcomes

68 • Medium qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$5.3K

24h Vol$4.9K

POLYMARKET

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

5mo

97%

Yes

Related Cryptos

BTC

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$1M

24h Vol$352.5

POLYMARKET

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

2.5%5mo

Yes

+0.0%71%

-0.0%30%

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$691.4K

24h Vol$869

POLYMARKET

China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

7.0%5mo

-0.1%70%

Yes

+0.1%31%

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$4.4K

24h Vol$1.7K

POLYMARKET

Wolves Esports vs. FunPlus Phoenix

3.0%2d

FunPlus Phoenix

+3.0%58%

Wolves Esports

-1.0%45%

CoinRithm referenceFunPlus Phoenix58%· ±2 pts

77 • High qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$7.6K

24h Vol$7.6K

KALSHI

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

0.2%5mo

93%

Yes

CoinRithm reference7%· ±1 pts

80 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$190K

24h Vol$408.8

POLYMARKET

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

0.4%5mo

#10

-0.4%97%

-2.0%43%

20%

+1 more outcomes

91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$104K

24h Vol$714.1

POLYMARKET

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by which date?

5.5%5mo

December 31

-5.5%26%

June 30

-0.6%0%

July 31

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$66.8K

24h Vol$1.2K

POLYMARKET

Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?

3.0%2mo

Before Nov 1, 2026

89%

Before Oct 1, 2026

+3.0%88%

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$20.8K

24h Vol$1.7K

KALSHI

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

3.9%1mo

Alibaba

+1.5%66%

Other

50%

Company A

50%

+22 more outcomes

64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$20K

24h Vol$916.4

POLYMARKET

Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

0.5%5mo

Yes

93%

+0.0%8%

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$567.3K

24h Vol$129.9

POLYMARKET

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

0.5%4mo

Kuomintang (KMT)

+0.5%87%

Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)

-0.1%13%

Taiwan People’s Party (TPP)

+27 more outcomes

83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity

Total Vol$141.1K

24h Vol$139.6

POLYMARKET

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

5mo

65.2%

Yes

34.8%

Community forecast37 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

7.5%1mo

Moonshot

+7.5%52%

Other

50%

Company A

50%

+22 more outcomes

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$11.8K

24h Vol$557.5

POLYMARKET

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

+2.4%33.3%

France

-2.2%22.8%

Other

10.6%

+8 more outcomes

Community forecast192 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

5mo

Neither by close date

-7.9%81.6%

China invades Taiwan first

+5.5%11.9%

U.S. invades/acquires Greenland first

+2.3%5.9%

+1 more outcomes

Community forecast35 forecastersType: multiple choice

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Yanbian Longding vs. Meizhou Hakka

1.0%2h

Yanbian Longding

+1.5%60%

Draw (Yanbian Longding vs. Meizhou Hakka)

-0.5%25%

Meizhou Hakka

-1.0%17%

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$968.4

24h Vol$968.4

POLYMARKET

Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)

10mo

84.3%

Yes

15.7%

Community forecast14 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Guangxi Hengchen FC vs. Jiangxi Dingnan United

2.0%4h

Guangxi Hengchen FC

+2.0%70%

Draw (Guangxi Hengchen FC vs. Jiangxi

-0.5%21%

Jiangxi

11%

79 • High qualityTight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$764.1

24h Vol$759.1

POLYMARKET

Dalian Kun City vs. Suzhou Dongwu

1.5%3h

Dalian Kun City

-2.5%53%

Draw (Dalian Kun City vs. Suzhou Dongwu)

+0.5%27%

Suzhou Dongwu

+1.5%20%

68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$661.5

24h Vol$635.5

POLYMARKET

US x China tariff agreement by July 31?

0.7%5d

+0.0%98%

Yes

-0.0%2%

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$93.5K

24h Vol$123.2

POLYMARKET

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

5mo

97.5%

Yes

2.5%

Community forecast66 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

China Annual Inflation 2026

0.7%5mo

0.6 – 1.0%

43%

1.1 – 1.5%

43%

1.6 – 2.0%

+0.1%8%

+6 more outcomes

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity

Total Vol$61.8K

24h Vol$155.5

POLYMARKET

If Donald Trump wins in 2024, will a War between China and the USA have occured by the end of his 2025 term?

93.4%

Yes

6.6%

Community forecast60 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - Total Corners

2.5%4h

Total Corners: O/U 7.5

+26.0%76%

Total Corners: O/U 8.5

-2.0%67%

Chengdu Rongcheng FC Corners: O/U 4.5

+15.0%65%

+20 more outcomes

52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution

Total Vol$389.3

24h Vol$349.3

POLYMARKET

Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by which date?

5mo

December 31

84%

July 31

June 30

-0.1%0%

44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity

Total Vol$40.4K

24h Vol$113.2

POLYMARKET

Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2026?

5mo

Yes

97.9%

2.1%

Community forecast47 forecastersType: binary

MANIFOLD MARKETS

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Xi Jinping out before 2027?

Best Chinese AI Company end of July?

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Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

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Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - Exact Score

Bilibili Gaming vs. Nova Esports

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Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

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China x Philippines military clash before 2027?

Wolves Esports vs. FunPlus Phoenix

Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026?

Will a Chinese company have a top ___ AI model by December 31?

Will Xi meet with Takaichi by which date?

Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?

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Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?

2026 Taiwanese Local Elections: Party Winner

Will Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?

Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

By 2028, which country other than USA/China will be most important to AI?

Who invades first: China (Taiwan) or U.S. (Greenland)?

Yanbian Longding vs. Meizhou Hakka

Does China have an ASML EUV machine? (as of June 19, 2026)

Guangxi Hengchen FC vs. Jiangxi Dingnan United

Dalian Kun City vs. Suzhou Dongwu

US x China tariff agreement by July 31?

US defaults on debt held by China before 2027?

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Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Beijing Guoan FC - Total Corners

Xi meets with Korean leader Lee Jae-Myung by which date?

Will Xi Jinping be the leader of China at the end of 2026?