PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 81%
No 81%Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.6K
Liquidity
$37.1K
High liquidityOpen interest
$365.6K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-4.5 pts
Market data
Updated 35 minutes ago
Jul 24, 26, 9:54 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Top holders
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Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketChina x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
PolymarketChina x Japan military clash before 2027?
PolymarketIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
PolymarketIsrael x Turkey military clash before 2027?
Manifold MarketsChina-Japan military clash or armed incident leading to injury by December 31, 2026
Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a military encounter between the military forces of China (People's Republic of China) and Philippines between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- A "military encounter" is defined as any incident involving the use of force such as melee weapons, missile strikes, artillery fire, exchange of gunfire, or other forms of direct military engagement between Chinese and Philippine military forces.
- Non-violent actions, such as warning shots, artillery fire into uninhabited areas, or missile launches that land in territorial waters or pass through airspace, will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
- Intentional ship ramming that results in significant damage to (e.g., a hole in the hull) or the sinking of a military ship by another will count toward a "Yes" resolution, however minor damage (scrapes, dents) will not.
- Note: the China Coast Guard (CCG) is part of the military, however, Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) is not.
Prediction Source Comparison
2 venues currently price this market. CoinRithm's cross-venue reference probability for CoinRithm reference is 19%. The venue spread is about 1 percentage point.
CoinRithm reference 19% · 2 venues · 1 pt venue spread