PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 14%-2.0ptLeader of 12 outcomes
December 31 14%-2.0ptMarket quality
≤74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$153.2K
Liquidity
$612.7K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
280
7d Change
-2.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Mar 16, 26, 6:44 PM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
April 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
August 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
July 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 15Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 22Lost
Before close: 0% ·
June 30Lost
Before close: 0% ·
March 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
May 31Lost
Before close: 0% ·
September 15Lost
Before close: 0% ·
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/5 - 10/11)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4)
KalshiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 5?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold Markets0 ships transit Bab el-Mandeb on any date by which date?
PolymarketRules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
- Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
- Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.