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  1. Prediction Markets
  2. Geopolitics
  3. Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

0.6% (24h)One-OffGeopoliticsMiddle East18d
PolymarketPolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% fee
Current implied probability
September 30
September 30 34%+4.0%
Leader of 7 outcomes
Market quality

89 / 100

High quality
24h Volume

$180.1K

Liquidity

$167.1K

High liquidity
Bid / Ask

13.0% / 13.6%

Spread

4.6%

Moderate spread
7d Change

+6.2%

Market data

Updated 1 minute ago

Mar 16, 26, 6:44 PMJun 30, 26, 12:00 AM

Trends

Outcome24hChance
March 31
March 31
0%
April 30
April 30
0%

Selected outcome

September 3034%

Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
  • Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
  • Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.

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Active in these topics

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Rules

This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.

Polymarket
  • Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
  • This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
  • If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
  • Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
  • Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.