PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
December 31 21%Leader of 12 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$60.1K
Liquidity
$587.2K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
243
7d Change
-1.5 pts
Market data
Updated 4 minutes ago
Mar 16, 26, 6:44 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
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Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
- If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
- Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying.
- Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
