FutuurCheck availabilityVerified resolution dataData quality warningNo live quotes
Data as of Oct 24, 2026, 5:39 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
December 31 18%
December 31 18%Market quality
23 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
$555.5
Low liquidityTraders
2
Comments
0
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketHow many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 19?
PolymarketWill the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
This event predicts whether the Bab el-Mandeb Strait will be effectively closed to shipping by the dates covered by the event's markets.
- A market will resolve to 'Yes' if the 7-day moving average of daily transit calls ("Arrivals of Ships") for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, as published by IMF PortWatch, is equal to or less than 10 at any point on or before the market's deadline.
- Otherwise, it will resolve to 'No'.
- A market resolves 'Yes' immediately and irrevocably once qualifying data is published, even if traffic later recovers.
- Data revisions published before the market's deadline are considered; revisions published after it are disregarded.
- If no qualifying data has been published within 14 calendar days after the deadline, resolution will use the data available through that point.