Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
One-OffTrade PolicyGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 71.7%
Forecasters
9
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 2 hours ago
StaleAug 20, 26, 2:12 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, the official 7-day moving average of ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls strictly below 15.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The source is the 7-day moving average line on this page: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- On Sunday Aug. 16, 2026, the value was 29.
- The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.
Open markets
Trade Policy
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+3 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
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+1 more outcomes
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- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
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- No28%
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- 24h Vol
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POLYMARKETWill Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- No+4.0pt77%
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- 24h Vol
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 72% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026? resolve?
- Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria