Will the 7-day moving average of ships passing the Bab el-Mandeb Strait ever fall below 15 in 2026?
One-OffTrade PolicyGeopolitics2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 4:02 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current community forecastNo 57.1%
Forecasters
10
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingAug 20, 26, 2:12 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many ships transit Bab el-Mandeb Strait week of October 26?
PolymarketAvg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of October?
PolymarketBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by which date?
PolymarketTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/26 - 11/1)
KalshiTraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (10/19 - 10/25)
KalshiBab el-Mandeb Strait closed by which date?
FutuurRules
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to YES if, at any point between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, the official 7-day moving average of ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait falls strictly below 15.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.
- The source is the 7-day moving average line on this page: https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
- On Sunday Aug. 16, 2026, the value was 29.
- The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a vital maritime chokepoint connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden.