Trade Policy
34 related markets tracked across sources for Trade Policy.
Open Markets
27
Total Volume
$746,992
24h Volume
$14,095
Total Liquidity
$154,060
100% tariff on Canada in effect by June 30?
0.8%18d
+0.0%1%
-0.0%99%
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$62.6K
24h Vol$1K
POLYMARKET
US x Cuba economic deal by...?
1.0%18d
-1.0%9%
-0.7%0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$292.5K
24h Vol$896.9
POLYMARKET
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
6mo
75%
25%
68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$16.5K
24h Vol$285.2
POLYMARKET
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by June 30?
0.5%18d
5%
+0.0%95%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$38.6K
24h Vol$218.6
POLYMARKET
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
18d
1%
99%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$140.5K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
6mo
11%
-0.1%2%
1%
+2 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$20.5K
24h Vol$71.8
KALSHI
What will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
2y
15%
100%
100%
+15 more outcomes
Community forecast101 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$34.8K
24h Vol$0
MANIFOLD MARKETSUS x China tariff agreement by June 30?
18d
6%
95%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$26.1K
24h Vol$10.5
POLYMARKET
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
0.5%8mo
+2.5%40%
+2.5%19%
+0.3%10%
+5 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$21.3K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by June 30?
0.1%18d
3%
98%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$14.6K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
1.0%2y
+1.0%82%
-1.9%3%
-0.1%4%
+5 more outcomes
71 • Medium qualityTight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$13.5K
24h Vol$7.1
KALSHI
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
1.0%6mo
-1.0%60%
-8.0%12%
0%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$889.9
24h Vol$5.7
KALSHI
What will the US tariff rate on China be on July 1?
3.2%20d
+3.2%5%
+2.0%5%
+1.0%2%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.1K
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
Which tariffs will the House vote to eliminate before July?
20d
2%
2%
1%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$563.8
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement with China?
2y
34%
66%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$624.1
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
7.0%6mo
+7.0%44%
56%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$250.1
24h Vol$0.1
KALSHI
Will Trump make a new free trade agreement?
1.0%2y
-1.0%49%
51%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$238.2
24h Vol$0.4
KALSHI
What will the US tariff rate on India be on July 1?
20d
18%
77%
2%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$201.5
24h Vol$1.5
KALSHI
US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026
5.0%1mo
-5.0%15%
97%
80%
+2 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$160.9
24h Vol$1.5
KALSHI
What will the US tariff rate on Canada be on July 1?
8.0%20d
-8.0%19%
68%
5%
+4 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$133.6
24h Vol$0.1
KALSHI
US trade deficit for 2026?
8mo
2%
1%
1%
+9 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$116
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
What will the US tariff rate on the EU be on July 1?
6.0%20d
+6.0%80%
12%
8%
+4 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$131.1
24h Vol$0.1
KALSHI
US tariff revenue for 2026
11mo
36%
89%
91%
+3 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$72.8
24h Vol$0.2
KALSHI
Will Trump lower beef tariffs?
5.0%20d
-5.0%9%
1%
3%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$76.8
24h Vol$0.2
KALSHI
Will new tariffs become law?
20d
3%
6%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$43.6
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Jun 2026?
17.0%20d
-17.0%20%
80%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0.8
24h Vol$0.5
KALSHI
Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?
7mo
0%
100%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$0
24h Vol$0
KALSHI