Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
1.6 pt (24h)2mo
December 31-3.0pt13%October 31+1.6pt4%+4 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.6M
24h Vol$17.3K
4 hours ago
POLYMARKET
POLYMARKETTrade Policy
421 markets tracked all-time for Trade Policy, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
255
Total Volume
$16,065,829
24h Volume
$84,283
Liquidity + open interest
$3,681,644
Related Crypto Assets
December 31-3.0pt13%October 31+1.6pt4%
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
3.0 pt (24h)2mo
December 3141%November 3035%October 31+3.0pt6%+2 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$296.4K
24h Vol$6.7K
3 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
22h
Above 26098%Above 27095%Above 280+1.0pt89%+5 more outcomes
Medium quality (70)Tight spreadHigh open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$117.4K
24h Vol$7.8K
KALSHITraffic through the Suez Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
1.0 pt (24h)7d
Above 260+1.0pt94%Above 270+2.0pt89%Above 280+6.0pt83%+5 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$46.8K
24h Vol$20.3K
KALSHI
Rhode Island average residential electricity price in 2026
2.0 pt (24h)4mo
Above 28.0¢/kWh+2.0pt95%Above 29.0¢/kWh94%Above 28.5¢/kWh92%+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$120K
24h Vol$5.1K
KALSHI
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (10/26 - 11/1)
4.0 pt (24h)7d
Above 17095%Above 180+4.0pt91%Above 18583%+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (58)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$22.6K
24h Vol$14.8K
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
Before 2027
0.4 pt (24h)2mo
Yes3%-0.4pt
No97%
High quality (84)Tight spreadHigh open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$1.5M
24h Vol$2.1K
KALSHITraffic through the Panama Canal? (10/19 - 10/25)
22h
Above 17098%Above 18095%Above 185+1.0pt91%+6 more outcomes
Medium quality (60)Tight spreadHigh open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$184.1K
24h Vol$4.2K
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHIUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)2mo
December 31+0.1pt3%+3 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1M
24h Vol$774.6
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US Announces Diesel Export ban by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)5d
December 3111%October 31-0.1pt2%+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$516.2K
24h Vol$896.9
POLYMARKETTrump announces Canada tariff increase by which date?
2mo
October 3164%+2 more outcomes
Low quality (19)Wide spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$10.7K
24h Vol$749.7
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
0.6 pt (24h)2y
$0 / No Acquisition+0.2pt90%$100 billion to $299 billion-0.6pt4%$10 billion to $99 billion-0.3pt3%+5 more outcomes
Medium quality (63)Moderate spreadHigh open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$1.8M
24h Vol$163.5
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
2d
Above 4%99%Above 3%98%Above 5%98%+8 more outcomes
Low quality (39)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$14.5K
24h Vol$393.7
KALSHI
Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026?
Before 2027
2.0 pt (24h)2mo
Yes32%+2.0pt
No68%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.2K
24h Vol$550
2 hours agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?
0.1 pt (24h)5mo
Yes5%-0.1pt
No95%+0.1pt
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$13.2K
24h Vol$262.3
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will Trump issue dividend payments?
1.0 pt (24h)2mo
Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt25%Before Jan 1, 202711%Medium quality (62)Tight spreadHigh open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$95.8K
24h Vol$141.5
KALSHI
Midterms: which issue matters most to voters?
8.0 pt (24h)11d
Economy and cost of living99%Democracy+8.0pt9%Iran war and foreign policy7%+4 more outcomes
Low quality (36)Wide spreadHigh open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$48.5K
24h Vol$104.5
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
1.5 pt (24h)2mo
Yes13.9%+1.5pt
No86.1%-1.5pt
Low quality (34)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$31.3K
24h Vol$154.2
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will Applied Optoelectronics say during their next earnings call?
24d
Qualification85%China / Chinese80%Pearland76%+9 more outcomes
Low quality (31)Wide spreadLow open interest
Total Vol$736
24h Vol$256
KALSHI
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
6.0 pt (24h)2y
Before Jan 20, 2029-6.0pt35%Before Jan 1, 202819%Low quality (41)Moderate spreadMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.7K
24h Vol$114
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Canada becomes EU Associate Member by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)8mo
202721%June 30, 2027-1.0pt12%2026-0.1pt4%Medium quality (59)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$10.2K
24h Vol$241.7
POLYMARKET
Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
1.1 pt (24h)5d
October 31+1.1pt5%+3 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$14.5K
24h Vol$126
3 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKETTrump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
7.6 pt (24h)2mo
December 3183%October 31-7.6pt75%+1 more outcomes
Low quality (39)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$8.8K
24h Vol$219
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
What will Amer Sports say during their next earnings call?
43.0 pt (24h)1mo
Foot Locker86%Norvan83%Tariff+43.0pt82%+10 more outcomes
Low quality (30)Wide spreadLow open interestThin market
Total Vol$564
24h Vol$211
KALSHI
What will KKR say during their next earnings call?
28d
Private Credit88%Pipeline87%AI / Artificial Intelligence87%+7 more outcomes
Low quality (28)Wide spreadLow open interestThin market
Total Vol$688
24h Vol$105
KALSHI
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
2mo
Mexico14%Canada-1.0pt12%Israel+3.0pt12%+14 more outcomes
Low quality (44)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$404.1K
24h Vol$80.2
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US x Cuba economic deal by which date?
2mo
December 3112%+3 more outcomes
Low quality (12)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$446.8K
24h Vol—
3 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Will the Graham Act sanctions take effect in 2026?
Before 2027
6.0 pt (24h)2mo
Yes14%-6.0pt
No86%
Low quality (37)Wide spreadLow open interestThin market
Total Vol$200.1
24h Vol$100
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
2.0 pt (24h)2mo
Critical minerals26%Canadian aircraft22%Wind turbines+2.0pt19%+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (50)Moderate spreadMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$31.5K
24h Vol$96.6
KALSHI
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
a case primarily related to tariffs imposed by Donald Trump
1.1 pt (24h)2mo
Yes5%-1.1pt
No95%
Medium quality (57)Moderate spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$37.2K
24h Vol$72.5
KALSHI
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
Before 2029
1.0 pt (24h)2y
Yes14%-1.0pt
No86%
Medium quality (51)Moderate spreadMedium open interest
Total Vol$71.2K
24h Vol$16.3
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
Before Jan 1, 2027
2mo
Yes16%
No84%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadHigh open interest
Total Vol$69K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)2mo
December 31,+0.5pt4%+1 more outcomes
Low quality (22)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$59.3K
24h Vol—
3 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
South Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
3mo
Above 2.2 million TEUs93%Above 2.3 million TEUs88%Above 2.4 million TEUs36%+3 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$51K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)2mo
December 31-1.0pt22%+2 more outcomes
Low quality (7)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$47.5K
24h Vol—
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Port of Savannah container volume in 2026
3mo
Above 5.4 million TEUs95%Above 5.6 million TEUs88%Above 5.8 million TEUs49%+1 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$31.9K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
6mo
800–900B29%900B–1T+0.5pt16%700–800B15%+5 more outcomes
Low quality (35)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.1K
24h Vol—
3 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
1y
202633%202711%Low quality (11)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$16.6K
24h Vol—
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET
US trade deficit for 2026?
4mo
Above 170 billion87%119.6 billion to 119.9 billion6%55 billion to 64.9 billion5%+9 more outcomes
Low quality (25)Spread unknownMedium open interest
Total Vol$15.4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
U.S. tariff rate on China on December 31, 2026?
1.1 pt (24h)2mo
5–15%83%15–25%-0.5pt8.5%25–35%-1.1pt2.8%+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (60)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$12.4K
24h Vol$5.7
POLYMARKET
Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?
2mo
Before Jul 1, 202757%Before Jan 1, 202726%Low quality (34)Wide spreadMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$14K
24h Vol—
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
2mo
U.S.–Mexico interim agreement41%U.S.–Canada interim agreement26%Trilateral revised deal24%+5 more outcomes
Low quality (47)Wide spreadMedium open interestHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$13.4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US tariff revenue for 2026
7mo
Above $80 billion92%Above $100 billion91%Above $125 billion89%+4 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Wide spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$12.5K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?
2.9 pt (24h)5d
Yes3%-2.9pt
No97%+2.9pt
Low quality (31)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2.7K
24h Vol$39.1
4 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKETCanada admitted to the EU before 2029?
4.0 pt (24h)2y
Yes7%-4.0pt
No93%+4.0pt
Medium quality (51)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$5.1K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
Will the EU adopt a ban on Israeli settlement goods?
2mo
Yes5%
No95%
Low quality (44)Moderate spreadMedium open interestNear resolution
Total Vol$4.3K
24h Vol—
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
5.0 pt (24h)7d
Yes9%+5.0pt
No91%
Low quality (37)Moderate spreadLow open interestThin market
Total Vol$4.1K
24h Vol$0.3
1 hour agoKALSHI
KALSHI
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
2mo
Yes5.9%
No94.1%
Low quality (44)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4K
24h Vol—
3 hours agoPOLYMARKET
POLYMARKET