Trade Policy
275 markets tracked all-time for Trade Policy, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
170
Total Volume
$12,594,303
24h Volume
$79,811
Total Liquidity
$3,128,049
Related Crypto Assets
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
0.6 pt (24h)3mo
+0.6pt5%
0%
High quality (82)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.4M
24h Vol$25.1K
KALSHI
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
1.5 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt27%
-0.5pt12%
+1.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.8M
24h Vol$6.5K
POLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
2.0 pt (24h)2y
+2.0pt79.6%
+4.7pt6.5%
4.6%
+5 more outcomes
High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$1.7K
KALSHI
What will Trump say during The Ingraham Angle?
14d
96%
94%
85%
+23 more outcomes
Low quality (46)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$11.7K
24h Vol$11.7K
KALSHI
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
2.0 pt (24h)3mo
56.6%
-2.0pt28.7%
+2.0pt14.8%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$141.8K
24h Vol$4.4K
POLYMARKET
When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?
11.0 pt (24h)1mo
-20.0pt62%
+11.0pt61%
+11.0pt60%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (66)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8K
24h Vol$6.6K
KALSHI
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
0.8 pt (24h)3mo
-0.8pt88.1%
+0.8pt11.9%
High quality (76)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$247.3K
24h Vol$1.7K
POLYMARKET
When will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?
20d
59%
58%
55%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (52)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.5K
24h Vol$5.5K
KALSHI
What will the White House Press Secretary say in their next press briefing?
6.0 pt (24h)4d
+6.0pt25%
+1.0pt22%
22%
+27 more outcomes
Medium quality (62)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$205.7K
24h Vol$1K
KALSHI
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
3.1 pt (24h)3mo
15%
+3.1pt15%
+1.5pt15%
+14 more outcomes
Medium quality (54)Wide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$390.2K
24h Vol$948.4
POLYMARKET
Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026?
3mo
95%
5%
Medium quality (71)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4.9K
24h Vol$4.9K
KALSHI
Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
7.0 pt (24h)20d
-7.0pt85%
15%
Medium quality (59)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$9.2K
24h Vol$1.7K
KALSHI
Will the EU adopt a ban on Israeli settlement goods?
3mo
85%
15%
Medium quality (68)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.4K
24h Vol$3.4K
KALSHI
US x Cuba economic deal by which date?
1.5 pt (24h)3mo
+1.5pt13%
-0.6pt0%
-0.7pt0%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (49)Moderate spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$434.8K
24h Vol$255.9
POLYMARKET
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
4.0 pt (24h)3mo
-4.0pt74%
+4.0pt26%
Medium quality (65)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$21.4K
24h Vol$584.2
POLYMARKET
Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
1.5 pt (24h)1mo
-1.5pt54%
+1.5pt14%
1%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (56)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.9K
24h Vol$298
POLYMARKET
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
3.0 pt (24h)4d
-3.0pt87%
-4.0pt43%
9%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (57)Tight spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$2.4K
24h Vol$660.4
KALSHI
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt93.1%
-0.5pt6.9%
Medium quality (64)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.5K
24h Vol$478.1
POLYMARKET
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
8.0 pt (24h)3mo
+8.0pt18%
0%
Medium quality (55)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$120.8K
24h Vol$131.7
KALSHI
When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?
1mo
69%
54%
46%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (53)Tight spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$523
24h Vol$523
KALSHI
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
79%
+1.0pt21%
Low quality (43)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$34.2K
24h Vol$105.6
KALSHI
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
11.5 pt (24h)1y
-8.0pt43%
-11.5pt23%
Low quality (28)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.5K
24h Vol$163.3
POLYMARKET
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
10.0 pt (24h)3mo
69%
35%
25%
+5 more outcomes
Low quality (45)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.5K
24h Vol$200.1
KALSHI
When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?
20d
38%
23%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (52)Tight spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$313
24h Vol$313
KALSHI
When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
6.0 pt (24h)3mo
+6.0pt67%
61%
+5.0pt58%
+2 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.7K
24h Vol$248
KALSHIWill Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?
6mo
88.1%
11.9%
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$255.6
24h Vol$255.6
POLYMARKET
What will Nike say during their next earnings call?
2.0 pt (24h)3mo
86%
85%
85%
+8 more outcomes
Low quality (38)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$4K
24h Vol$229.8
KALSHIUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
4%
-0.1pt0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (35)Spread unknownHigh liquidity
Total Vol$973K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
2y
85%
15%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$68.8K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
3mo
14%
-0.3pt0%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$56.2K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by which date?
0.3 pt (24h)3mo
42%
-2.0pt23%
-0.3pt0%
Low quality (23)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$46.7K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
2.0 pt (24h)2y
68%
-2.0pt32%
Medium quality (51)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.3K
24h Vol$7.3
KALSHI
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
3mo
34%
23%
11%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (36)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$29.4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
What will Constellation Brands say during their next earnings call?
2.0 pt (24h)6mo
78%
72%
71%
+10 more outcomes
Medium quality (54)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$16.7K
24h Vol$18.1
KALSHI
Rhode Island average residential electricity price in 2026
24.0 pt (24h)5mo
96%
95%
88%
+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (53)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$26.1K
24h Vol$0.4
KALSHI
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
5mo
+0.5pt35.3%
-5.0pt30.3%
+0.5pt11.5%
+5 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$24K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
South Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
1.0 pt (24h)4mo
94%
+1.0pt85%
+1.0pt57%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (54)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$16K
24h Vol$0.4
KALSHI
US trade deficit for 2026?
5mo
91%
6%
5%
+9 more outcomes
Low quality (32)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$15.4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?
4.0 pt (24h)1mo
30.1%
-20.0pt29.1%
+4.0pt22.3%
+3 more outcomes
Low quality (47)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$3.1K
24h Vol$63.5
KALSHI
US tariff revenue for 2026
5.0 pt (24h)8mo
98%
96%
+5.0pt91%
+3 more outcomes
Low quality (43)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$9.3K
24h Vol$1
KALSHI
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
0.4 pt (24h)20d
-2.0pt18%
-1.0pt5%
-0.4pt0%
Low quality (23)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$5.7K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
20d
92.1%
7.9%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$5.2K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026?
3mo
65%
35%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.9K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
3.0 pt (24h)1mo
96%
96%
95%
+8 more outcomes
Low quality (48)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4.1K
24h Vol$4.6
KALSHI
Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?
3mo
88%
12%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$4.2K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
1mo
72%
28%
Low quality (46)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
3mo
82%
48%
41%
Low quality (35)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.1K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
+0.5pt91.1%
-0.5pt8.9%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.1K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET