Trade Policy
270 markets tracked all-time for Trade Policy, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
166
Total Volume
$12,301,812
24h Volume
$32,059
Total Liquidity
$3,014,797
Related Crypto Assets
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
2.5 pt (24h)3mo
-0.5pt28%
+0.5pt13%
-2.5pt4%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (70)Moderate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.8M
24h Vol$5.9K
POLYMARKET
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+8.0pt57%
+2.0pt29.8%
+1.0pt13.2%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (68)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$137.4K
24h Vol$13.5K
POLYMARKET
Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
25.0 pt (24h)21d
+25.0pt95%
5%
Medium quality (68)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$7.5K
24h Vol$5.5K
KALSHI
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
1.0 pt (24h)2y
+1.0pt83.3%
4.9%
3.9%
+5 more outcomes
High quality (81)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$926.3
KALSHI
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
3mo
4%
0%
Medium quality (74)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.4M
24h Vol$554.3
KALSHI
Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
10.0 pt (24h)1mo
+1.0pt56%
-10.0pt13%
1%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (60)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$7.6K
24h Vol$1K
POLYMARKET
When will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?
3mo
82%
50%
50%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (49)Wide spreadLow liquidity
Total Vol$1.9K
24h Vol$1.9K
KALSHI
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
5d
-2.0pt90%
47%
9%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (57)Tight spreadLow liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$1.7K
24h Vol$1.2K
KALSHIUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
0.1 pt (24h)3mo
+0.1pt4%
-0.1pt0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (63)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$973K
24h Vol$113.5
POLYMARKET
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt17%
+0.5pt15%
14%
+14 more outcomes
Medium quality (63)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$389.2K
24h Vol$110.3
POLYMARKET
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
20.0 pt (24h)3mo
+20.0pt91%
-20.0pt9%
Medium quality (61)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.1K
24h Vol$271
POLYMARKET
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
81%
-1.0pt19%
Medium quality (56)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$34.1K
24h Vol$102.4
KALSHI
Will new tariffs become law?
17.0 pt (24h)1mo
39%
-17.0pt11%
3%
Medium quality (53)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$28.5K
24h Vol$124.5
KALSHI
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
+1.0pt78%
-1.0pt22%
Medium quality (61)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$20.8K
24h Vol$140.8
POLYMARKET
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
0.9 pt (24h)3mo
+0.9pt89%
-0.9pt11%
Medium quality (71)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$245.6K
24h Vol$97.3
POLYMARKET
US x Cuba economic deal by which date?
3mo
11%
-0.6pt0%
-0.7pt0%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (47)Tight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$434.6K
24h Vol$17.9
POLYMARKET
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
3.0 pt (24h)21d
-3.0pt86%
14%
Low quality (37)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$201
24h Vol$101
KALSHI
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
2.0 pt (24h)3mo
+2.0pt13%
0%
Medium quality (53)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$120.6K
24h Vol$8.3
KALSHI
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
5.0 pt (24h)2y
85%
-5.0pt15%
Medium quality (52)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$68.8K
24h Vol$5.7
KALSHI
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
3mo
14%
-0.3pt0%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$56.2K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
3mo
34%
23%
11%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (46)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$29.4K
24h Vol$20
KALSHI
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by which date?
0.3 pt (24h)3mo
+9.0pt42%
+0.5pt24%
-0.3pt0%
Low quality (24)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$46.7K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
4.0 pt (24h)3mo
69%
35%
25%
+5 more outcomes
Low quality (41)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$11.3K
24h Vol$77.1
KALSHI
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
4.0 pt (24h)2y
66%
-4.0pt34%
Medium quality (56)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.2K
24h Vol$7.3
KALSHI
Rhode Island average residential electricity price in 2026
5mo
96%
95%
88%
+4 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$26.1K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
5mo
34.4%
32%
+1.5pt11.5%
+5 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$24K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
1.5 pt (24h)21d
+3.5pt19%
-1.5pt7%
-0.4pt0%
Low quality (46)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$5.7K
24h Vol$72
POLYMARKET
South Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
4mo
94%
84%
56%
+3 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$16K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US trade deficit for 2026?
5mo
91%
6%
5%
+9 more outcomes
Low quality (32)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$15.4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
0.5 pt (24h)1y
+9.0pt49%
-0.5pt34%
Low quality (39)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.3K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
4.0 pt (24h)21d
+4.0pt61%
61%
53%
+2 more outcomes
Low quality (42)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.4K
24h Vol$26
KALSHI
What will Nike say during their next earnings call?
4.0 pt (24h)3mo
86%
85%
85%
+8 more outcomes
Low quality (32)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.8K
24h Vol$47.4
KALSHI
What will Mark Carney say during his European Parliament address?
18.0 pt (24h)22d
79%
+8.0pt75%
65%
+11 more outcomes
Low quality (38)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$6.9K
24h Vol$10.6
KALSHI
US tariff revenue for 2026
8mo
98%
96%
86%
+3 more outcomes
Low quality (43)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$9.3K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
21d
92.1%
7.9%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$5.2K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Will the CIT strike down Trump's Section 301 tariffs in 2026?
3mo
65%
35%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.9K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?
3mo
88%
12%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$4.2K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
1mo
96%
96%
95%
+8 more outcomes
Low quality (43)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4.1K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Will Trump formalize a 100% tariff on generic drugs before the midterms?
1mo
72%
28%
Low quality (39)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?
31.0 pt (24h)21d
42%
+1.0pt26.1%
16%
+3 more outcomes
Low quality (29)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3.1K
24h Vol$8.1
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
3mo
82%
48%
41%
Low quality (35)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.1K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
South Africa balance of trade for August
20d
100%
0%
0%
+7 more outcomes
Low quality (35)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$3K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Will Ontario lift its U.S. alcohol restrictions in 2026?
3mo
83%
17%
Low quality (48)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$2.6K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
1.5 pt (24h)3mo
+1.5pt93%
-1.5pt7%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?
1.5 pt (24h)3mo
+1.5pt87%
-1.5pt13%
Low quality (47)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.8K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Port of Savannah container volume in 2026
4mo
95%
79%
23%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (49)Tight spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.8K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
When will insulated copper cable face Section 232 restrictions?
3mo
31%
20%
Low quality (35)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.5K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
3mo
62%
11%
6%
+2 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1K
24h Vol—
KALSHI