Trade Policy
117 related markets tracked across sources for Trade Policy.
Open Markets
68
Total Volume
$8,790,573
24h Volume
$25,486
Total Liquidity
$2,567,221
Related Crypto Assets
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
0.1%5mo
+0.1%7%
0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.4M
24h Vol$6K
KALSHI
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
3.0%1mo
-2.0%63%
-1.0%55%
-3.0%34%
+2 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$1.3M
24h Vol$12.1K
POLYMARKET
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
1.0%2y
-1.0%82%
+3.1%6%
+1.7%5%
+5 more outcomes
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.5M
24h Vol$986.7
KALSHI
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
0.3%5mo
89%
11%
91 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$166.4K
24h Vol$1.2K
POLYMARKETUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
0.1%5mo
+1.0%9%
+0.8%3%
-0.1%0%
+1 more outcomes
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$850.8K
24h Vol$496.6
POLYMARKET
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
5mo
31%
-0.5%4%
64 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$108.5K
24h Vol$884.5
KALSHI
Will at least 80 percent of solar modules deployed in the US in 2026 be manufactured in the US?
1y
86.8%
13.2%
Community forecast68 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
2.5%5mo
+2.0%23%
+1.0%18%
-2.5%17%
+14 more outcomes
56 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$359.2K
24h Vol$144.8
POLYMARKET
What will Boeing say during their next earnings call?
4.0%5d
86%
74%
-7.0%69%
+11 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$10.3K
24h Vol$1.5K
KALSHI
US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026?
8.5%4d
+0.5%95%
+1.0%95%
+8.5%71%
+3 more outcomes
52 • Medium qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$9.5K
24h Vol$1.2K
POLYMARKET
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
9.0%1y
+9.0%34%
-0.5%17%
68 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$12.1K
24h Vol$722.5
POLYMARKETUS x China tariff agreement by July 31?
0.7%5d
+0.0%98%
-0.0%2%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$93.5K
24h Vol$123.2
POLYMARKETWill more US AI models be subject to US export control directives by the end of 2026?
5mo
92.2%
7.8%
Community forecast38 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill tariff refunds be given out to a majority who paid them?
2y
61.1%
38.9%
Community forecast29 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
2.0%2y
81%
+2.0%19%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$67.9K
24h Vol$0.5
KALSHI
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
5mo
82%
18%
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$29.8K
24h Vol$38.7
KALSHIWhat will be true about Trump's tariff dividend? ("stimulus check")
2y
100%
100%
79%
+15 more outcomes
Community forecast102 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US effective tariff rate for Q2 2026
1.0%4d
92%
+1.0%71%
14%
+2 more outcomes
44 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$25.3K
24h Vol$21
KALSHIWill there be nationwide price controls or rationing of consumer goods by 2027?
5mo
89.8%
10.2%
Community forecast39 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
7mo
48%
-1.5%24%
19%
+5 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$23.8K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETWill at least three more U.S. states impose special electricity tariffs on data centers before Jan 1, 2028?
1y
73.7%
26.3%
Community forecast6 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
5mo
44%
28%
20%
+1 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$27.4K
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
2y
57%
43%
40 • Low qualityWide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$24K
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
South Korea exports YoY for July
5d
95%
83%
53%
+6 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$18.5K
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
Will new tariffs become law?
3mo
35%
27%
1%
+1 more outcomes
60 • Medium qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$9.3K
24h Vol$35.2
KALSHI
US trade deficit for 2026?
7mo
82%
6%
5%
+9 more outcomes
44 • Low qualitySpread unknownMedium liquidity
Total Vol$13.3K
24h Vol$0
KALSHI
2k+ container ship transits of Suez Canal in H1 2026?
2.3%1mo
+0.0%99%
-0.0%1%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$153.4K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by which date?
0.3%5mo
+1.0%50%
-17.0%14%
-0.3%0%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$46.7K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
7.0%5mo
+0.1%62%
-0.1%39%
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.8K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKET
US tariff revenue for 2026
10mo
91%
90%
88%
+3 more outcomes
49 • Low qualityModerate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$8.4K
24h Vol$0
KALSHIWill Trump announce a new tariff/immigration policy by end of September 2026?”
2mo
89.9%
10.1%
Community forecast9 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
1.5%5mo
+0.0%86%
-0.0%14%
24 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.8K
24h Vol$0
POLYMARKETWill the Jones Act be in effect for more than half of 2027?
1y
61.7%
38.3%
Community forecast7 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
0.5%5mo
-0.5%64%
-0.3%0%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$44.8K
24h Vol$5.1
POLYMARKET$100k fee imposed on H1B Visas?
2y
88%
12%
Community forecast146 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
US to impose tariffs on Denmark's imports before the 2028 elections?
2y
50%
50%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$33.7
24h Vol$0
FUTUURWill the US and Brazil close a rare earths deal in 2026?
5mo
71%
29%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$9.4
24h Vol$0
FUTUUR
What will Snapchat say during their next earnings call?
5mo
55%
54%
50%
+12 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$646.4
24h Vol$11
KALSHIFree flow of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal in 2026?
5mo
55.5%
44.5%
Community forecast25 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Will Trump’s 50% tariffs on Canada take effect August 19?
5.0%24d
65%
-5.0%35%
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$801.4
24h Vol$4.8
KALSHIWhat major event will precipitate the next run on toilet paper in the United States?
11mo
22.3%
5.9%
5.7%
+19 more outcomes
Community forecast10 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETS
What will the tariff rate on Chinese imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
5mo
57%
6%
0%
+2 more outcomes
40 • Low qualityModerate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$601
24h Vol$0
KALSHIWill US impose new tariffs on Spain by end of July 2026?
5d
90.5%
9.5%
Community forecast21 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
5mo
-12.0%50%
27%
0%
+5 more outcomes
28 • Low qualityWide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$519
24h Vol$2
KALSHIWill Trump’s proposed 50% tariff on Canada ever go in effect?
2y
61%
39%
Community forecast18 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US impose 50% secondary tariffs on any Iran weapons supplier by July 31, 2026?
5d
90.1%
9.9%
Community forecast10 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSWill the US impose antidumping duties on Russian palladium imports by the end of 2026?
5mo
65%
35%
Community forecast3 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSIndonesia and Laos supply >40% of US solar imports by June 30, 2026?
2mo
71.3%
28.7%
Community forecast5 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETS