Trade Policy
283 markets tracked all-time for Trade Policy, settled ones included. A market can appear under several topics.
Open Markets
175
Total Volume
$12,880,250
24h Volume
$95,939
Total Liquidity
$3,289,068
Related Crypto Assets
Iran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
2.5 pt (24h)3mo
-6.5pt31%
-4.0pt22%
-2.5pt8%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (≤74)Tight spreadHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2.9M
24h Vol$14.8K
POLYMARKET
Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
0.4 pt (24h)3mo
+0.4pt5%
0%
High quality (79)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$2.4M
24h Vol$16.1K
KALSHI
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (9/14 - 9/20)
7d
95%
61%
-15.0pt10%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (72)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$30.5K
24h Vol$27.8K
KALSHI
How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
3.0 pt (24h)2y
-3.0pt84%
5%
-0.4pt3%
+5 more outcomes
High quality (83)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$1.7M
24h Vol$1.7K
KALSHI
US-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
14.5 pt (24h)3mo
69%
+4.0pt44%
+14.5pt34%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$166.8K
24h Vol$4.8K
POLYMARKET
Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026?
4.0 pt (24h)3mo
92%
+4.0pt8%
Medium quality (68)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$32.9K
24h Vol$3.3K
KALSHI
Rhode Island average residential electricity price in 2026
2.0 pt (24h)5mo
96%
-2.0pt87%
+1.0pt77%
+4 more outcomes
Medium quality (60)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$34.4K
24h Vol$1.7K
KALSHI
South Carolina ports total container volume in 2026
16.0 pt (24h)4mo
94%
86%
57%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$20K
24h Vol$2.9K
KALSHIUS charges Hormuz fees by which date?
1.7 pt (24h)3mo
-1.7pt5%
-0.1pt0%
0%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (65)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$983.3K
24h Vol$816
POLYMARKET
Will new tariffs become law?
14.0 pt (24h)1mo
+22.0pt53.4%
+14.0pt43.7%
2.9%
Medium quality (59)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$33.8K
24h Vol$1.2K
KALSHI
What will Costco say during their next earnings call?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
90%
+1.0pt84%
80%
+15 more outcomes
Medium quality (58)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$14K
24h Vol$2.6K
KALSHI
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/14 - 9/20)
3.0 pt (24h)7d
-15.0pt70%
-32.0pt27%
25%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.8K
24h Vol$4.7K
KALSHITraffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
11.0 pt (24h)22h
+22.0pt72%
-11.0pt61%
-4.0pt33%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (59)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$12K
24h Vol$2.1K
KALSHI
What will Nike say during their next earnings call?
7.0 pt (24h)3mo
92%
85%
85%
+8 more outcomes
Medium quality (61)Tight spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$7.2K
24h Vol$2.7K
KALSHI
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (9/14 - 9/20)
2.0 pt (24h)7d
86%
+2.0pt78%
70%
+2 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Tight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$4.6K
24h Vol$4.3K
KALSHI
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
1.1 pt (24h)3mo
-1.1pt87%
+1.1pt13%
High quality (77)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$249.8K
24h Vol$978.3
POLYMARKET
Will Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?
0.8 pt (24h)6mo
-0.8pt94%
+0.8pt6%
Medium quality (70)Tight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$9.4K
24h Vol$263
POLYMARKET
When will Canada and the US finalize a trade deal?
4.0 pt (24h)1mo
31.6%
-2.0pt28.6%
+4.0pt18.4%
+3 more outcomes
Medium quality (50)Wide spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$4.1K
24h Vol$467
KALSHI
Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
2.5 pt (24h)3mo
+2.5pt93%
-2.5pt7%
Medium quality (67)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$3.5K
24h Vol$354.6
POLYMARKETTrump announces Canada tariff decrease by which date?
39.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt64.2%
-41.0pt18.9%
-39.0pt16.8%
Low quality (44)Wide spreadLow liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$460.9
24h Vol$320.9
POLYMARKET
Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
2.0 pt (24h)3mo
23.6%
20.3%
17.9%
+5 more outcomes
Low quality (40)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$12.1K
24h Vol$204.9
KALSHI
Trump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
6.0 pt (24h)1mo
+8.0pt68%
+6.0pt30.9%
-0.4pt1%
+1 more outcomes
Medium quality (53)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$8.6K
24h Vol$150.1
POLYMARKET
Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
19.6 pt (24h)16d
+19.6pt22%
+1.5pt20%
-0.4pt0%
Low quality (30)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$6K
24h Vol$223.7
POLYMARKET
US imposes new sanctions on China by September 30?
3.0 pt (24h)16d
-3.0pt87%
+3.0pt13%
Low quality (48)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$5.5K
24h Vol$200.8
POLYMARKET
US effective tariff rate for Q3 2026
2.0 pt (24h)1mo
96%
95%
-2.0pt93%
+8 more outcomes
Low quality (41)Wide spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4.4K
24h Vol$183
KALSHI
Will a federal film or TV production tax credit become law?
2.0 pt (24h)3mo
92%
-2.0pt8%
Medium quality (54)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$4.5K
24h Vol$168
KALSHI
When will Canada lower tariffs on the US?
2mo
49%
39.6%
-2.0pt11.5%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$1.8K
24h Vol$231.5
KALSHI
Jones Act domestic shipping requirements removed by December 31?
3.5 pt (24h)3mo
+3.5pt88%
-3.5pt12%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$2K
24h Vol$149.4
POLYMARKET
Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
14.0 pt (24h)16d
-14.0pt72%
28%
Low quality (37)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$392.8
24h Vol$191.8
KALSHI
Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
3mo
17%
14%
-1.4pt14%
+14 more outcomes
Medium quality (64)Tight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$391K
24h Vol$65.9
POLYMARKET
US x Cuba economic deal by which date?
3mo
13%
-0.6pt0%
-0.7pt0%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (44)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$434.9K
24h Vol$20
POLYMARKET
Will Trump announce a trade deal with Cuba?
3mo
11%
0%
Medium quality (54)Moderate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$120.9K
24h Vol$64.4
KALSHI
Will the Supreme Court hear a case on Trump's tariffs in 2026?
5.0 pt (24h)3mo
87%
-5.0pt13%
Medium quality (57)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$34.6K
24h Vol$74.3
KALSHI
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement with China?
2y
85%
15%
Low quality (≤49)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$68.8K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
Tariff increase on Canada in effect by which date?
3mo
13%
-0.3pt0%
Low quality (≤49)Tight spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$56.3K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
18.0 pt (24h)3mo
29%
26%
-18.0pt16%
+1 more outcomes
Low quality (41)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$29.5K
24h Vol$19
KALSHI
US announces Cuba oil sanction relief by which date?
0.3 pt (24h)3mo
42%
23%
-0.3pt0%
Low quality (23)Spread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$46.7K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Will the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
8.0 pt (24h)2y
60%
+8.0pt40%
Medium quality (54)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$25.3K
24h Vol$16
KALSHI
Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
3mo
77.2%
22.8%
Low quality (≤49)Moderate spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$21.7K
24h Vol$21.3
POLYMARKET
US Trade Deficit in 2026?
0.1 pt (24h)5mo
+1.5pt34.5%
-10.5pt27.6%
+0.5pt12.1%
+5 more outcomes
Low quality (48)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$24.1K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
Copper cable hit with Sec. 232 tariffs by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)1y
+0.5pt44%
+1.0pt25%
Low quality (25)Wide spreadLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$15.6K
24h Vol—
POLYMARKET
US trade deficit for 2026?
5mo
91%
6%
5%
+9 more outcomes
Low quality (32)Spread unknownMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$15.4K
24h Vol—
KALSHI
US tariff revenue for 2026
8mo
98%
96%
87%
+3 more outcomes
Low quality (43)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$9.3K
24h Vol—
KALSHIWill Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
0.5 pt (24h)3mo
-0.5pt92.1%
+0.5pt7.9%
Medium quality (59)Moderate spreadMedium liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$2.6K
24h Vol$50
POLYMARKETTrump announces Canada tariff increase by which date?
1.0 pt (24h)3mo
-1.0pt54%
+1.0pt20%
+7.0pt16%
Medium quality (57)Tight spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$2K
24h Vol$59.2
POLYMARKET
What will the tariff rate on Canadian imports be on Jan 1, 2027?
20.0 pt (24h)3mo
-2.0pt80%
39%
-20.0pt28%
Low quality (36)Wide spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.3K
24h Vol$24.1
KALSHI
When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
7.0 pt (24h)16d
67%
58%
-7.0pt53%
+2 more outcomes
Low quality (37)Wide spreadMedium liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$5.7K
24h Vol$1
KALSHI
Will the EU adopt a ban on Israeli settlement goods?
3mo
86%
14%
Medium quality (56)Moderate spreadMedium liquidity
Total Vol$3.9K
24h Vol$10
KALSHI