KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeCurrent implied probabilityCritical minerals 39%+2.0%Leader of 4 outcomes
Market quality
52 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$311.7
Liquidity
$6K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
31.0% / 38.0%
Spread
22.6%
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 6 minutes ago
Feb 4, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Critical minerals39%
Macro-Sensitive Assets
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If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on Canadian aircraft, where the executive action must explicitly reference Canadian aircraft in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves based on the issuance of an executive action, independent of the effective date or whether the tariffs are subsequently implemented.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.