Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026?
1.0 pts (24h)One-OffTrade PolicyUS PoliticsPoliticsElection4mo
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
Critical minerals 39.4%+1.0ptLeader of 4 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
40 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$58.6
Liquidity
$7.8K
Medium liquiditySpread
10.0 pt
Wide spreadMarket data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Feb 4, 26, 3:00 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
Macro-Sensitive Assets
Rules
If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on the named outcome, where the executive action must explicitly reference the named outcome in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.
- This market resolves based on the issuance of an executive action, independent of the effective date or whether the tariffs are subsequently implemented.
- The qualifying action must be of the specific type designated (executive order, presidential memorandum, proclamation, directive, determination, or finding), be signed by the President personally during the specified time period, and explicitly address the topic in the document's operative provisions, title, or official White House summary.
- Actions must have legal or policy effect - ceremonial proclamations without policy impact do not qualify unless specifically included.
- Actions that only incidentally mention the topic, statements without formal action, actions by cabinet members, legislative proposals without executive action, and signing statements do not qualify.
- The action must be publicly announced or documented by a Source Agency before expiration.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026??
- Kalshi prices Critical minerals at 39% as of August 21, 2026.
- When does Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? resolve?
- Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Which sectors will Trump tariff in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the President of the United States has taken any executive action in 2026 imposing tariffs specifically on the named outcome, where the executive action must explicitly reference the named outcome in its title, operative text, or fact sheet (not merely in an attached tariff schedule annex) and set an effective date, then the market resolves to Yes.