PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYC2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedData quality warningSource data degraded
Data as of Aug 21, 2026, 5:40 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
December 31 46%-6.0ptLeader of 6 outcomes
Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$32.6K
Liquidity
$183.6K
High liquiditySpread
2.0 pt
Tight spreadComments
18
7d Change
-4.0 pts
Market data
Updated 17 minutes ago
Jun 25, 26, 11:22 PMJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM
Trends
0%
0%
Rules
This market resolves to “Yes” if the Iranian government officially announces and begins collecting fees, tolls, charges, tariffs, or similar payments from commercial vessels which are mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to “No.”
- A qualifying fee must be an announced policy which applies generally to all commercial vessels, or a defined subcategory of commercial vessels (e.g., vessels flagged to the US and its allies).
- Isolated demanded charges will not qualify.
- A fee is mandatory if, in practice, affected commercial vessels cannot transit or access the Strait of Hormuz without paying it, regardless of whether Iran characterizes the payment as voluntary or a fee for services.
- Fees described as tolls, maritime fees, service charges, environmental fees, security fees, insurance charges, etc. will qualify provided they are recognized as mandatory for passage through or access to the Strait of Hormuz by a consensus of credible reporting (e.g., a mandatory insurance fee charged by the Iranian Persian Gulf Strait Authority would qualify).
