KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Oct 26, 2026, 1:52 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Selected book midpoint
Before Apr 1, 2027 · —
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Stored price
Before Apr 1, 2027 25.5%
Before Apr 1, 2027 25.5%Market quality
47 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$199.7
Open interest
$38K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
Before Apr 1, 2027Spread
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Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingSep 10, 26, 3:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · Before Apr 1, 2027
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
How many vetoes will Trump issue in 2026?
PredictItWill Trump issue a veto in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump create a $5,000 dividend by March 31, 2027?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump issue an executive order from the federal government at any point past February 1 2029?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump issue Elon Musk a Presidential Pardon while he is in office
Manifold MarketsRules
If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027 that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market. Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date. Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity. Qualifying payments require: At least $100 issued to each of at least 1,000,000 actual recipients under the same program. Payments to the same person may be combined. Checks dispatched, electronic transfers released, or equivalent spendable monetary payments issued. Recipients need not cash their checks. The following do NOT qualify: Announcements, authorizations, planned payments, or counts of eligible people without actual issuance. Routine federal benefits or ordinary tax refunds; ACA or other healthcare reimbursement rebates; importer tariff refunds; child Trump Account deposits; private gifts; stock dividends; or non-monetary distributions. Changes to the program name, payment amount, eligibility, funding source, spending restrictions, or political conditions do not disqualify a program that meets these requirements.
Rules for each outcome
- Before Apr 1, 2027
- If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Apr 1, 2027 that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Before Jan 1, 2027
- If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings, then the market resolves to Yes.