KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 95%
Market quality
70 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$4.9K
Liquidity
$4.1K
Medium liquidityBid / Ask
5.1% / 6.7%
Spread
1.6 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Sep 10, 26, 3:30 AM UTCJan 1, 27, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will Trump issue Obamacare rebates before Election Day?
KalshiHow many vetoes will Trump issue in 2026?
PredictItWill Trump issue a veto in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
PolymarketWill Donald Trump issue a public apology?
KalshiWill Donald Trump issue an executive order from the federal government at any point past February 1 2029?
Manifold MarketsRules
If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The Washington PostFox NewsThe Wall Street JournalThe GuardianABCBloomberg NewsCBSSouth China Morning PostNBCthe Associated PressBBCAxiosCNNABC News AustraliaThe InformationSemaforMSNBCCBCReutersPoliticoThe New York Times
- Only reporting from any of the Source Agencies qualifies for the purposes of this market.
- Reports that merely reference prior publications (from before Issuance) do not qualify, unless the new article itself explicitly reaffirms the truth of the topic as of the publication date.
- Republishing of content originally produced by other sources (e.g., wire services) only qualifies if the content is hosted on the outlet's official platform and the outlet is clearly identified as the publishing entity.
- Qualifying payments require: At least $100 issued to each of at least 1,000,000 actual recipients under the same program.
- Payments to the same person may be combined.
Open markets
Trade PolicyKALSHIWill Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- Before 2027-0.9pt5%
- Before August0%
- Total Vol
- $2.4M
- 24h Vol
- $24.6K
KALSHIWhen will Trump raise tariffs on Canada?
- Before Jan 1, 202762%
- Before Dec 1, 202658%
- Before Nov 1, 202658%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $7.1K
- 24h Vol
- $7.1K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31-1.0pt27%
- October 3112%
- September 30+1.5pt7%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWhen will Trump lower tariffs on Canada?
- Before Dec 1, 202659%
- Before Jan 1, 202755%
- Before Nov 1, 202652%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $5.5K
- 24h Vol
- $5.5K
POLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 3157.5%
- October 31-2.0pt29.2%
- September 3013.3%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the EU adopt a ban on Israeli settlement goods?
- No85%
- Yes15%
- Total Vol
- $3.4K
- 24h Vol
- $3.4K
- Will Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
- Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- When will Canada raise tariffs on the US?
- Will Trump create a tariff dividend by December 31, 2026?
- US x Cuba economic deal by which date?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026??
- Kalshi prices No at 95% as of September 10, 2026.
- When does Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026? resolve?
- Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026? is scheduled to resolve on January 1, 2027.
- How is Will Trump issue dividend payments in 2026? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027 that at least 1,000,000 people have each been issued at least $100 in payments under the same new federal program for the general public presented by the Trump administration as a dividend, rebate, or equivalent return of government revenue or savings, then the market resolves to Yes.