How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
1.0 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffCorporate ActionsPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
$0 / No Acquisition 83.3%+1.0ptLeader of 8 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
82 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$1.3K
Liquidity
$631.3K
High liquiditySpread
1.0 pt
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Jan 17, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US acquire any new territory?
KalshiWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
LimitlessWill the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026?
Manifold MarketsRules
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Times
- The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments.
- It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning.
- Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD.
- An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access.
- It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement.
Open markets
Trade PolicyPOLYMARKETUS-Canada diplomatic agreement to lower tariffs by which date?
- December 31+8.0pt55.2%
- October 31+7.0pt32%
- September 30+2.0pt12.8%
+1 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $130.7K
- 24h Vol
- $9.4K
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 3128%
- October 31+1.0pt14%
- September 30-1.0pt6%
+3 more outcomes
KALSHIWill Trump order more tariffs in Sep 2026?
- Yes+27.0pt94%
- No6%
- Total Vol
- $6.6K
- 24h Vol
- $4.7K
KALSHIWhat will Karoline Leavitt say during RNC Midterm Convention?
- Trump (3+ times)91%
- Republican80%
- Inflation59%
+15 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $1.3K
- 24h Vol
- $1.3K
POLYMARKETTrump meets with Mark Carney by which date?
- October 31+1.0pt56%
- September 30-14.0pt9%
- September 15-0.8pt1%
+1 more outcomes
KALSHIWill the U.S. enact a free trade agreement?
- No66%
- Yes-9.0pt34%
- Total Vol
- $25.2K
- 24h Vol
- $507.3
- Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/7 - 9/13)
- Which USMCA outcomes will occur in 2026?
- US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
- Will Americans receive tariff stimulus checks?
- When will the US and China reach a tariff agreement?
- US charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- Will Apple purchase CXMT memory chips in 2026?
- Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by which date?
- Canada cuts off or throttles electricity to the US by December 31?
- Will Trump announce a new trade deal in Sep 2026?
Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for How much will the US acquire Greenland for??
- Kalshi prices $0 / No Acquisition at 83% as of September 9, 2026.
- When does How much will the US acquire Greenland for? resolve?
- How much will the US acquire Greenland for? is scheduled to resolve on January 22, 2029.
- How is How much will the US acquire Greenland for? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.