How much will the US acquire Greenland for?
0.4 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffCorporate ActionsPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics2y
KalshiCheck availabilityKYC requiredVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
$0 / No Acquisition · —
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Stored price
$0 / No Acquisition 90.7%Leader of 8 outcomes
$0 / No Acquisition 90.7%Market quality
74 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$2.9K
Open interest
$643.8K
High open interestBid / Ask
— / —
$0 / No AcquisitionSpread
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Market data
Updated 59 minutes ago
LaggingJan 17, 26, 3:00 PM UTCJan 22, 29, 4:59 AM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Kalshi
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Early close:
- Yes
- Settlement timer:
- 30m (informational)
Market depth · $0 / No Acquisition
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the US acquire new territory during Trump’s second term?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
PolymarketWill the US acquire any new territory?
KalshiWill the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
PolymarketWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
LimitlessRules
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:The New York Times
- The Total Monetary Consideration includes cash payments, Treasury securities, direct payments to residents, recurring economic assistance (calculated as 50 times the annual amount if the term exceeds 50 years), infrastructure commitments, assumed debt, and other quantified financial commitments. It excludes the imputed value of military protection, non-quantified promises, the value of citizenship or visa-free travel, and the estimated value of natural resources or strategic positioning. Values are rounded to the nearest $1 billion USD. An "Acquisition of Greenland" requires a treaty transferring sovereignty, Senate ratification, formal White House announcement of territorial status, or a Compact of Free Association with exclusive military access. It does not include expanded base rights, trade agreements, or military occupation without a formal agreement. If no acquisition occurs in the time period, markets resolve to Yes for the "$0 / No Acquisition" bracket and No for all other brackets.
Rules for each outcome
- $0 / No Acquisition
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $100 billion to $299 billion
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $100 billion and $299 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $10 billion to $99 billion
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $10 billion and $99 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $300 billion to $599 billion
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $300 billion and $599 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $1 billion to $9 billion
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $1 billion and $9 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $600 billion to $899 billion
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $600 billion and $899 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $1.2 trillion or more
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is at_least $1200 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
- $900 billion to $1199 billion
- If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is between $900 billion and $1199 billion during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.