Will the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026?
Corporate ActionsTechOne-OffPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopolitics3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98%
Forecasters
39
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 15 hours ago
StaleJan 8, 26, 2:08 AM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States acquires sovereignty over Greenland by December 31, 2026.
- Acquisition would require either: (1) a formal transfer of sovereignty from Denmark to the United States through a treaty or purchase agreement ratified by the U.S. Senate or Danish Parliament, or (2) effective U.S. military control over some or all of the territory.
- The market resolves NO if no such transfer occurs by the deadline.
- Resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. State Department or other U.S. government agencies.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Effective military control is defined as: The US government making an official statement that they have control over Greenland via the US Military.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 98% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026? resolve?
- Will the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026? is scheduled to resolve on December 31, 2026.
- How is Will the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution Criteria