Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
CommoditiesTechOne-OffTrade PolicyCorporate ActionsPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopoliticsChinaEurope3moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 98%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 18, 26, 3:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow much will the US acquire Greenland for?
KalshiWhat countries will acquire sovereign territory or economic rights within any part of Greenland in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?
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PolymarketNothing Ever Happens: 2026
PolymarketRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States acquires sovereignty over Greenland before January 1, 2027.
- Acquisition must be formally recognized through one of the following: (1) a binding international agreement transferring sovereignty from Denmark to the U.S., (2) Greenlandic independence followed by a binding agreement transferring sovereignty to the U.S., or (3) effective U.S. military control and international recognition of U.S. sovereignty.
- The resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. State Department, Danish government, Greenlandic government, and/or UN recognition of territorial status.
- Trump has announced he would institute "very high" tariffs against Denmark if it resisted attempts to make Greenland a U.S. territory, and refused to rule out economic or military action against Denmark.
- Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark and seven other European countries, with duties increasing to 25% by June 1 if a deal is not reached.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland? · Before January 20, 2029 23%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term? · No 95%
- Also available on Limitless — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 55%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 97%