Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
CommoditiesTechOne-OffTrade PolicyCorporate ActionsPoliticsUS PoliticsGeopoliticsChinaEurope2moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 97%
Forecasters
17
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Jan 18, 26, 3:37 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Will the United States of America acquire Greenland by Dec. 31 2026?
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if the United States acquires sovereignty over Greenland before January 1, 2027.
- Acquisition must be formally recognized through one of the following: (1) a binding international agreement transferring sovereignty from Denmark to the U.S., (2) Greenlandic independence followed by a binding agreement transferring sovereignty to the U.S., or (3) effective U.S. military control and international recognition of U.S. sovereignty.
- The resolution will be determined by official statements from the U.S. State Department, Danish government, Greenlandic government, and/or UN recognition of territorial status.
- Trump has announced he would institute "very high" tariffs against Denmark if it resisted attempts to make Greenland a U.S. territory, and refused to rule out economic or military action against Denmark.
- Trump announced a 10% tariff on Denmark and seven other European countries, with duties increasing to 25% by June 1 if a deal is not reached.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Kalshi — Will the US take control of any part of Greenland? · Before January 21, 2029 19%
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term? · No 95%
- Also available on Limitless — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 55%
- Also available on Polymarket — Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · No 98%
