Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedData quality warningStale data
Data as of Jul 20, 2026, 9:10 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-2
Current community forecastYes 5.9%
Forecasters
13
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 5 days ago
StaleJan 18, 26, 3:37 PMDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Yes6%
Compare venues· No
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketBest overall93% match · auto | High | 96% | — | $16.3K | $236.4K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi82% match · linked | High | 16% | — | $223.9 | $816.4K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| KalshiMost active82% match · linked | Medium | 23% | — | $29.6K | $546.5K | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless91% match · auto | Low | 95% | — | $0 | $0 | 12 minutes ago | Open → |
| Manifold MarketsThis page | — | 94% | — | — | — | 5 days ago | |
| Manifold Markets78% match · linked | — | 95% | — | — | — | 38 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets85% match · linked | — | 91% | — | — | — | yesterday | Open → |
Also available on Polymarket
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
96%
4%
100 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidityNear resolution
Total Vol$35.1M
24h Vol$16.3K
POLYMARKETAlso available on Limitless
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
5mo
94.6%
5.5%
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$25.1K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Trump/USA buy or acquire part of Greenland?
2y
91%
9%
Community forecast1,259 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Kalshi
Will the US take control of any part of Greenland?
2y
23%
+0.5%6%
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$3.3M
24h Vol$29.6K
KALSHIAlso available on Kalshi
Will Trump buy at least part of Greenland?
5mo
16%
6%
0%
83 • High qualityTight spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$5M
24h Vol$223.9
KALSHIAlso available on Manifold Markets
Will Greenland become part of the US by the end of Trump’s term?
2y
95.3%
4.7%
Community forecast41 forecastersType: binary
MANIFOLD MARKETSRules
Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Large trades
$1.3k95.4%POLYMARKETNoChasingPaper7d ago
POLYMARKETNoChasingPaper7d ago$1.1k93.3%KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago
KALSHIBefore 2027 — No17d ago$1.5k95.4%POLYMARKETNoNxbYid23d ago
POLYMARKETNoNxbYid23d agoVolume trend
$105Jul 192d of dataJul 20
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KALSHIActive in these topics
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Resolution criteria are not yet available for this market. Refresh cycles will populate this section when source rules are stored.