Will Trump say Iceland should be a part of the USA before 2029?
Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsEuropePoliticsCorporate ActionsElection2yManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastYes 58.6%
Forecasters
23
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 1 hour ago
LaggingJan 18, 26, 12:23 AM UTCDec 31, 28, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
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KalshiRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if Trump publicly states that Iceland should be a part of the USA before January 1, 2029.
- This includes statements made in speeches, press conferences, social media posts, interviews, or official communications.
- The statement must explicitly indicate that Iceland should become part of the United States (e.g., "Iceland should be a U.S. state," "we should acquire Iceland," or similar language).
- Trump's nominee for ambassador to Iceland joked with lawmakers that Iceland will become the 52nd U.S. state, signaling the administration's broader interest in Arctic territories.
- Iceland is situated along the GIUK Gap, a strategic chokepoint for surveillance in the Arctic region whose name references the first letters of Greenland, Iceland, and the United Kingdom.
