US imposes new sanctions on China by October 31?
0.5 pts (24h)Trade PolicyOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle EastChina25d
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedCurrent implied probability
No 94.1%+0.5pt
No 94.1%+0.5ptMarket quality
46 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$80.4
Liquidity
$394.9
Low liquidityBid / Ask
3.0% / 8.0%
Spread
5.0 pt
Moderate spreadComments
0
Market data
Updated 16 minutes ago
Sep 30, 26, 11:55 PM UTCNov 1, 26, 3:59 AM UTC
Trends
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- Yes
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Manifold MarketsRules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against China between market creation and October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
- Sanctions are official government measures that restrict economic activity, financial transactions, trade, travel, or diplomatic engagement with China.
- Qualifying sanctions include comprehensive economic embargoes restricting most trade and financial transactions; sectoral sanctions targeting specific industries (e.g., energy, finance, defense, or technology); asset freezes and blocking of property owned by China or Chinese citizens; trade restrictions including export controls, import bans, or tariffs imposed explicitly as sanctions; financial sanctions including restrictions on banking relationships, access to financial systems, or international lending; travel bans and visa restrictions; and arms embargoes.
- Secondary sanctions against third-party countries or entities designated for dealings with China will qualify.
- The expansion in scope of previously existing sanctions against China will qualify; however, the renewal of existing sanctions without modification will not qualify.
