Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz before April 5, 2027?
Middle EastGeopoliticsOne-Off5mo
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 77.2%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 42 minutes ago
Apr 5, 26, 10:29 PM UTCApr 5, 27, 10:27 PM UTC
Trends
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Manifold MarketsRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, 1 month after the Strait of Hormuz is opened to typical amounts of traffic (>50% of traffic prior to the closure), there is a public agreement between Iran and the relevant international parties (e.g., the U.S. or a UN-backed coalition) that explicitly includes both of the following conditions:
- Substantial sanctions relief: A verifiable, significant easing of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran by major international powers (not merely minor exemptions or renewals).
- Tolls on ships: The formal establishment of a mechanism allowing Iran to legally levy tolls or fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached by April 5, 2027, or if an agreement is reached that does not include both provisions.
- Official government press releases, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), and verified transcripts of diplomatic agreements will be used to determine the outcome.