Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz?
Middle EastGeopoliticsOne-Off6moManifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 75%
Forecasters
47
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 13 hours ago
StaleApr 5, 26, 10:29 PM UTCApr 5, 27, 10:27 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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PolymarketRules
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, 1 month after the Strait of Hormuz is opened to typical amounts of traffic (>50% of traffic prior to the closure), there is a public agreement between Iran and the relevant international parties (e.g., the U.S. or a UN-backed coalition) that explicitly includes both of the following conditions:
- Substantial sanctions relief: A verifiable, significant easing of economic sanctions currently imposed on Iran by major international powers (not merely minor exemptions or renewals).
- Tolls on ships: The formal establishment of a mechanism allowing Iran to legally levy tolls or fees on commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.
- The market resolves to NO if no such agreement is reached by the date specified, or if an agreement is reached that does not include both provisions.
- Official government press releases, international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, AP, Bloomberg), and verified transcripts of diplomatic agreements will be used to determine the outcome.
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz??
- Manifold Markets prices No at 75% as of September 8, 2026.
- When does Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? resolve?
- Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? is scheduled to resolve on April 5, 2027.
- How is Will Iran get substantial sanctions relief AND tolls on ships in exchange for reopening Hormuz? settled?
- Manifold Markets settles this market as follows: Resolution criteria