Will Iran's govt change AND all US sanctions on Iran be lifted by 2030?
Middle EastGeopoliticsOne-Off3y
Manifold MarketsNo KYCVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent community forecastNo 70.5%
Forecasters
18
Question type
binary
Methodology
Play-money forecasting platform
Source type
Forecast
Market data
Updated 18 hours ago
StaleJun 15, 25, 1:06 AM UTCDec 31, 29, 11:59 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
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KalshiRules
The first half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/BaryLevy/will-the-government-of-the-islamic-9R2hcIEElO?r=QW5U.
- the essence of the resolution criteria is whether the people in control of Tehran or most of Iran are still Ayatollahs or hold a similar Shiite-muslim religious title.
- The second half of question refers to https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/will-the-us-lift-all-sanctions-on-i?r=QW5U but extended by a year.
- That market doesn't have resolution criteria specified yet so I'll match its reasoning plus use my best judgement.
- This is a conjunction market; it resolves YES iff both parts are satisfied (though not necessarily in a causally linked manner).