Iran blockade lifted before Iran-Oman Hormuz agreement?
1.0 pts (24h)PoliticsOne-OffUS PoliticsGeopoliticsMiddle East2mo
PolymarketCheck availabilityNo KYCVerified resolution dataWell calibratedSelected book midpoint
No · —
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Stored reference
No 71%
No 71%Market quality
71 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$700.2
Liquidity
$25.8K
High liquidityOpen interest
$8.5K
Bid / Ask
— / —
NoSpread
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Comments
0
7d Change
-1.0 pts
Market data
Updated 15 minutes ago
Sep 3, 26, 1:21 PM UTCDec 31, 26, 11:59 PM UTC
Chart and changes show stored historical probabilities, not the selected live book.
Trends
Selected row: book midpoint. Other rows: stored references, possibly normalized; 24h changes use stored history.
Venue terms
Source: Polymarket
Informational venue terms only; CoinRithm paper trading uses its own rules.
- Minimum order (shares):
- 5
- Tick size:
- 1 percentage points
- Fees:
- No
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Market depth · No
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Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by which date?
PolymarketWill Iran and Oman announce a permanent Hormuz shipping scheme by October 31?
Manifold MarketsUS-Iran Hormuz Agreement by which date?
PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
PolymarketWho wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement by Oct 23 and oil below $80 before the midterms?
PolymarketWill a crossing of the Strait of Hormuz, between Iran and Oman or UAE, have started construction by 2040?
Manifold MarketsRules
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers.
- This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers before a diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran over traffic in the strait of Hormuz is announced.
- Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
- If neither a qualifying announcement of the end of the blockade nor a qualifying diplomatic agreement between Oman and Iran occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
- An announcement of the end of the blockade qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees).
- An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port.
