KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataRoughly calibratedCurrent implied probabilityRenan Santos 8%+1.8%Leader of 13 outcomes
Market quality
100 / 100
High quality24h Volume
$6.6K
Liquidity
$1.3M
High liquidityBid / Ask
7.9% / 8.0%
Spread
1.3%
Tight spreadMarket data
Updated 11 minutes ago
Dec 5, 25, 7:30 PMOct 25, 27, 2:00 PM
Trends
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
Renan Santos8%
Compare venues· Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Ranked by market quality, then liquidity and 24h volume| Venue | Quality | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KalshiThis pageBest overall | High | 59% | 0pt | $6.6K | $1.3M | 11 minutes ago | |
 PolymarketMost active80% match · verified | High | 61% | +2pt | $215.8K | $9.6M | 18 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets82% match · auto | — | 58% | -1pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
| Manifold Markets95% match · verified | — | 57% | -2pt | — | — | 10 days ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
2026 Brazil Presidential Election Winner?
3mo
+1.7%56.9%
25%
-0.8%11.1%
+5 more outcomes
Community forecast26 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Manifold Markets
Brazil Presidential Election Winner
2mo
58%
+0.1%25%
1%
+4 more outcomes
Community forecast18 forecastersType: multiple choice
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Brazil Presidential Election
2mo
61%
+0.1%23%
+0.2%11%
+29 more outcomes
77 • High qualitySpread unknownHigh liquidityHigh ambiguity
Total Vol$112.1M
24h Vol$215.8K
POLYMARKETRules
If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jair Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Fernando Haddad has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Tarcisio de Frietas has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Michelle Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
Volume trend
$6.6kJul 210d of dataJul 11
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If Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Jair Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Fernando Haddad has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Tarcisio de Frietas has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Michelle Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
- If Flávio Bolsonaro has won the 2026 Brazilian presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.