KalshiCheck availabilityKYC required2% feeVerified resolution dataFairly calibratedCurrent implied probability
J.D. Vance 18.7%Leader of 30 outcomesVig-adjusted: raw venue quotes summed above 100% and were normalized.
Market quality
69 / 100
Medium quality24h Volume
$318.3K
Liquidity
$44.3M
High liquidityMarket data
Updated 31 minutes ago
May 21, 26, 3:00 PMNov 7, 29, 3:00 PM
Trends
Rules
If the named outcome is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles via:Office of the Presidency
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference JD Vance 24% · 7 venues · 6 pt venue spread
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be elected president in 2028? · J.D. Vance 22%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 24%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 25%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 · Gavin Newsom 28%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? · JD Vance 21%
- Also available on Myriad — US Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 54%
Open markets
Politics
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-1.0pt60.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.3pt34.3%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt2.9%
+16 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $134.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.9M
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party-1.0pt84.2%
- Republican Party+1.0pt15.8%
- Total Vol
- $26M
- 24h Vol
- $874.5K
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.3%
- Jon Ossoff17.3%
- Gavin Newsom12.5%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $194.5M
- 24h Vol
- $668.1K
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance+0.8pt24.7%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-0.1pt14.4%
- Marco Rubio11.3%
+49 more outcomes
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31-0.7pt76%
- October 3160%
- September 30-3.0pt38%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETDemocratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%
- Jon Ossoff+1.1pt16%
- Gavin Newsom+0.3pt15%
+48 more outcomes
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner??
- Kalshi prices J.D. Vance at 19% as of August 27, 2026.
- When does 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? resolve?
- 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2029.
- How is 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? settled?
- Kalshi settles this market as follows: If the named outcome is the next person inaugurated as President for the term beginning in 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.
- Where else is 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, Limitless, Smarkets, Futuur, PredictIt, Myriad.