MyriadCheck availabilityNo KYCLimited verified dataData quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Oct 10, 2026, 12:38 AM UTC · policy pm-quality-4
Current implied probability
JD Vance 41.2%-0.1ptLeader of 31 outcomes
Market quality
22 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownTraders
3,596
Market data
Updated 1 minute ago
Feb 24, 26, 12:35 PM UTCNov 7, 28, 1:00 PM UTC
Trends
Related Markets
Related questions for context, not a comparison of equivalent contracts.
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
PolymarketWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2028 US presidential election?
Manifold MarketsWill Marco Rubio win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExWho will win the 2028 US presidential elections?
Manifold MarketsWho will Trump endorse first in the 2028 US presidential election?
PolymarketRules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins. - **Resolution Deadline:** By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **candidate who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election**. - If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - The race will be resolved based on **when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate**. - Once **all three** make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - If, by January 20, 2029, the three resolution sources have **not** unanimously called the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated as President of the United States. - If any of the three sources retracts, reverses, or updates its projection before unanimity is reached, the market will wait for the next moment when all three agree. - Provisional or partial calls by only one or two outlets will not trigger resolution.
Prediction Source Comparison
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Will the 2028 presidential election winner be a millennial? · No 81%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 27%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 19%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
