Data quality warningNot meaningfully priced
Data as of Aug 7, 2026, 3:50 PM UTC · policy pm-quality-3
Current implied probability
JD Vance 47.3%Leader of 31 outcomes
Market quality
30 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
—
Liquidity
—
Liquidity unknownTraders
3,258
Market data
Updated 2 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 12:35 PMNov 7, 28, 1:00 PM
Trends
Rules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins. - **Resolution Deadline:** By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **candidate who wins the 2028 U.S. Presidential Election**. - If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - The race will be resolved based on **when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate**. - Once **all three** make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
- ### **Resolution Details:**
- - If, by January 20, 2029, the three resolution sources have **not** unanimously called the same winner, the market will resolve based on who is inaugurated as President of the United States. - If any of the three sources retracts, reverses, or updates its projection before unanimity is reached, the market will wait for the next moment when all three agree. - Provisional or partial calls by only one or two outlets will not trigger resolution.
Prediction Source Comparison
CoinRithm reference JD Vance 23% · 7 venues · 5 pt venue spread
- Also available on Manifold Markets — Who will be elected President in 2028? (limited choices) · J.D. Vance 19%
- Also available on Robinhood (Rothera) — 2028 US Presidential Election: Winner · JVAN 20%
- Also available on Polymarket — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 24%
- Also available on Smarkets — 2028 Presidential Election Winner · JD Vance 18%
- Also available on Limitless — Presidential Election Winner 2028 · JD Vance 20%
- Also available on Futuur — US Presidential Election Winner in 2028 · Gavin Newsom 28%
- Also available on PredictIt — Who will win the 2028 US presidential election? · JD Vance 22%
- Also available on Kalshi — 2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner? · J.D. Vance 19%
Open markets
Politics
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez18.8%
- Jon Ossoff-1.0pt16.8%
- Gavin Newsom-1.0pt12.9%
+45 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $193.1M
- 24h Vol
- $2.4M
KALSHISouth Carolina Republican Senate special primary winner?
- Darline Graham-1.0pt58.7%
- Ralph Norman33%
- Pamela Evette0.9%
+8 more outcomes
- Total Vol
- $16.3M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Total Vol
- $10.9M
- 24h Vol
- $1.1M
POLYMARKETUS announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- December 31+3.0pt76%
- October 31+7.5pt60%
- September 30+5.0pt41%
+17 more outcomes
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva61.8%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+0.8pt34.3%
- Renan Santos-0.6pt2.9%
+15 more outcomes
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party85.9%
- Republican Party-1.0pt14.1%
- Total Vol
- $24.6M
- 24h Vol
- $546.4K
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Frequently asked questions
- What are the current odds for US Presidential Election Winner 2028?
- Myriad prices JD Vance at 47% as of August 25, 2026.
- When does US Presidential Election Winner 2028 resolve?
- US Presidential Election Winner 2028 is scheduled to resolve on November 7, 2028.
- How is US Presidential Election Winner 2028 settled?
- Myriad settles this market as follows: ### **Market Dates:**
- Where else is US Presidential Election Winner 2028 listed?
- The same question is also listed on Manifold Markets, Robinhood (Rothera), Polymarket, Smarkets, Limitless, Futuur, PredictIt, Kalshi.