Current implied probability
JD Vance 49.4%+0.0%Leader of 31 outcomes
Market quality
28 / 100
Low quality24h Volume
$0
Liquidity
$0
Low liquidityBid / Ask
-
Market data
Updated 5 minutes ago
Feb 24, 26, 12:35 PMNov 7, 28, 1:00 PM
Paper funds only — no real moneyNot financial advice
Selected outcome
JD Vance49%
Compare venues· JD Vance
Ordered by 24h volume| Venue | Probability | vs reference | 24h Vol | Liq | Freshness | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PolymarketMost active | 20% | 0pt | $4.1M | $37.8M | 13 minutes ago | Open → |
 Kalshi | 18% | -2pt | $310.2K | $35.7M | 8 minutes ago | Open → |
 Futuur | 15% | -5pt | $299.9 | $0 | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
 Manifold Markets | 19% | -1pt | — | — | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
 MyriadThis page | 49% | +29pt | $0 | $0 | 5 minutes ago | |
 Smarkets | 17% | -3pt | $0 | $0 | 5 minutes ago | Open → |
 Limitless | 50% | +30pt | $0 | $0 | 6 minutes ago | Open → |
Also available on Manifold Markets
2028 US Presidential Election winner?
2y
0.3%
-0.1%13.5%
0.2%
+42 more outcomes
Community forecast1,006 forecastersType: multiple choice
Total Vol$1.3M
24h Vol$88
MANIFOLD MARKETSAlso available on Polymarket
Presidential Election Winner 2028
0.2%2y
+0.1%20%
-0.5%14%
12%
+125 more outcomes
89 • High qualityModerate spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$652M
24h Vol$4.1M
POLYMARKETAlso available on Smarkets
2028 Presidential Election Winner
6.7%
0.2%
0.2%
+36 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$311.2K
24h Vol$0
SMARKETSAlso available on Limitless
Presidential Election Winner 2028
2y
50%
50%
50%
+4 more outcomes
28 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidityThin market
Total Vol$16.7K
24h Vol$0
LIMITLESSAlso available on Kalshi
2028 U.S. Presidential Election winner?
0.2%3y
+0.2%1%
1%
0%
+27 more outcomes
73 • Medium qualityWide spreadHigh liquidity
Total Vol$49.7M
24h Vol$310.2K
KALSHIAlso available on Futuur
US Presidential Election Winner in 2028
4mo
15%
15%
14%
+2 more outcomes
40 • Low qualitySpread unknownLow liquidity
Total Vol$299.9
24h Vol$299.9
FUTUURRules
### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins. - **Resolution Deadline:** By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **candidate who wins the 2028 U.S.
- Presidential Election**. - If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - The race will be resolved based on **when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate**. - Once **all three** make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
- ### **Resolution Details:**
Probabilities may differ due to different market structures, fees, and participant pools.
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### **Market Dates:**
- - **Market Period:** From the publication date until November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC. - **Market Close:** November 7, 2028 at 1:00 PM UTC, before Election Day begins. - **Resolution Deadline:** By January 20, 2029, or earlier once the outcome is determined by the resolution sources.
- ### **Resolution Criteria:**
- - This market resolves to the **candidate who wins the 2028 U.S.
- Presidential Election**. - If a Candidate not represented by their own bracket wins, the market resolves to “Other.” - The race will be resolved based on **when all three resolution sources — the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC — call the election for the same candidate**. - Once **all three** make the same call, the market immediately resolves to that candidate.
- ### **Resolution Details:**